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Yesterday, President Trump once again came out ahead of the big event of the week to tease that the NFP report would be significantly positive.

We should note that the President does have advanced access to the information – or at least part of it. Trump made a similar announcement last time, and the NFP substantially outperformed expectations.

On the other hand, there has been some recent data and some solid reasons for why the NFP figure should come in substantially below last month’s.

Congress is still at loggerheads even as the last of the emergency income supplements expire on Friday.

Where We Are at This Point

The NFP for April was the worst on record, showing a loss of 20 million jobs.

Since then, there have been 7.3 million jobs added, suggesting the US is far from returning to pre-COVID employment levels. Even if the expectations for July are met, the US wouldn’t have recovered even half of the jobs lost.

Continuing jobless claims rose last week for the first...

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