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Tomorrow we get the final chance to adjust the measurement of the US Q1 GDP.

The broad consensus is that it will simply repeat the second reading, to confirm a -5.0% contraction. However, given the logistics issues around COVID, there is a higher chance than usual for a change this time around.

The markets have already priced in a recession, and are looking towards reopening.

A further adjustment to the downside (it’s very, very unlikely to be adjusted back up), might just be the catalyst needed to push markets down.

While risk sentiment has been improving, recent trends show that the bulls are quite fickle and unsure.

What Now?

We’re coming to the close of the second quarter, which is less than a week away.

If the first was bad, the second is broadly expected to be much worse, since that’s when the bulk of the shutdowns happened. Starting next Wednesday, we get the first measures of the quarter. And this is likely to set the tone for markets.

With the recent rebound ...

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