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Tomorrow we have the release of the latest jobs numbers from the UK, and they are complicated.
Traditionally the ILO Unemployment Rate is what often drives the market, but this time around, that’s likely not to be the case. And then we have to factor in how government policies to deal with COVID-19 influence the behavior of the data, and what the markets might do in response.
The UK is somewhat behind the rest of its peers in terms of how the pandemic evolved. By now, the average number of new cases has started to trend down, allowing the government to start to reverse policies that weigh on the economy.
But it is doing so later than other countries, after having implemented them later than others. This plays into how the data matters for the markets.
Do We Still Care About the Unemployment Rate?
The ILO publishes its unemployment figures with a 45-day delay. This means that the rate we will see published tomorrow is for the three months to March.
For many, that might be old news...
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