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Early tomorrow, or late tonight depending on where you live, we get the most important data of the week for the AUD.
Inflation data not only moves the currency on its own, but could be instrumental in determining whether the RBA cuts the reference rate again this year.
Despite moving higher so far this month, AUDUSD hasn’t managed to break out of the year-long downward channel it has been stuck in.
It might be optimistic to think it bottomed out in late September. But, if any data were to be able to nudge it higher, it would be CPI.
What We Are Expecting
There a host of different CPI measurements, all of which are important. But the one that the market tracks because it’s the one that the RBA uses for setting policy is the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI.
On a quarterly basis, expectations are for it to remain steady at 0.4% compared to the second quarter. But that would imply a slight lowering of the annual rate to 1.5% compared to 1.6% prior.
A quarterly CPI change of 0.4% would b...
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