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Of course, no two recessions are identical. But there are certain parallels that we can use to gain some insight into how the current recession might evolve.
More importantly, what it implies for a few months down the road when economies have returned to growth.
What happens once we’ve found a vaccine/cure for COVID? Or when society has simply integrated it as a new seasonal virus?
One could argue that we hadn’t fully recovered from the Great Financial Crisis yet, despite the longest bull market in history.
It’s common to point to monetary policy, with most central banks keeping very low or negative rates since the last crisis. The Fed had only recently raised rates a few times before having to cut them again.
It’s Not Just the Big Institutions
But beyond the obvious, there were other (probably overlooked) signs in the economy.
For example, non-performing loans, especially mortgage defaults, were still unreasonably high and hadn’t returned to pre-crisis le...
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