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The current USOIL structure is indicative of a 5-wave impulse move. The intermediate degree leg is part of a cycle degree correction wave c and consists of primary sub-waves ①-②-③-④-⑤.

We can see that the first four parts of this impulse wave are fully completed, whereas wave ⑤ is still under construction at the time of writing. This is the final wave in impulse c.

We expect prices to rise near 37.92. At that level, wave (4) will be at 50% of impulse (3). Following a successful test, a fall below the 27.21 could be seen in wave (5).

The sudden decline, however, can be also seen as completed. This would suggest that the 5th wave and consequently cycle wave c are out of the way too.

Should this alternative scenario play out, we can expect the bounce at 27.35 swing low to be a reversal.

In this case, the prices of oil could rise above 47.52. This level is the intermediate wave (4)’s top, which is a minor degree triangle.

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