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US Retail Sales Forecast

The monthly retail sales report, a barometer of consumer spending, is due to be released today.

Forecasts

Economists forecast that retail sales will moderate, after rising strongly in July. Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3% on the month, excluding autos. This follows a 1.0% increase in the previous month.

Headline retail sales are expected to rise by 0.3%, increasing at less than half of the pace of the rise in July.

The increase in retail sales comes after the data for July surprised to the upside. Consumers spent more at retail stores and restaurants. The report has been showing trends of underlying momentum that is increasing.

Retail Sales
Retail Sales M/M, July 2019

The consumer data comes at a time when various economic indicators are giving a mixed outlook. There is no doubt that the US economy is slowing. At the same time, there are concerns that the economy could be heading into a recession.

Even various measures of consumer confidence remain mixed. However, there are some indicatio...


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