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q2 gdp

Like Germany, we expect French final Q2 GDP numbers to reaffirm the preliminary ones. And they’ll probably have a minimal impact on the market.

But, also like Germany, there is an increased chance this time around that we will have a significant revision of the figures. The disruptions caused by COVID, plus the magnitude of the change, can make the initial estimation less reliable.

The consensus of expectations for French GDP is to come in the same as the prelim at -13.8%. On an annualized basis, that would be a contraction of -19.0%, also a repeat of the preliminary number.

The Market Reaction

If the market were to move as a consequence of the GDP figures, it most likely will be because of an unexpectedly large revision in the quarterly figure.

Investors already knew that the economic situation was bad; a little worse or a little better isn’t going to change the situation.

However, if there are over a couple of percentage points of revision, it could have enough of an impa...

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