XAUUSD Final Cycle Trend to Yearly Highs

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The current XAUUSD formation hints to a strong bullish impulse.

We now see the development of the final impulse wave V, which consists of intermediate sub-waves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5).

The intermediate correction wave (4) which is a bearish double W-X-Y zigzag has recently ended.

In the near future, prices could rise in the intermediate wave (5), to the previous maximum marked by wave (3) above 2074.06.

xauusd

An alternative scenario shows wave (4) could see a deeper correction.

The intermediate correction wave (4) takes the form of a triple W-X-Y-X-Z zigzag. The first four parts of this triple combination have completed.

The end of the minor wave X looks to complete at 1934.11, located on the resistance line.

Finally, a small wave Z can lead the prices lower to the level of 1748.46, which is on the support line.

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EURCAD Looks for Another Peak

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EURCAD has been trading in a slight downtrend from its second yearly highest peak in August. Since then, several attempts to move to fresh highs have been met with resistance.

We now look to another possible attempt, as prices break away from the downward trend line. The first test being the 1.5669 of the previous peak, as well as the 1.5739 end of September peak.

A break past the specified levels could negate the bearish divergence recently noted on the momentum indicator.

With prices trading well clear of the Ichimoku indicators, another move to the upside could be likely.

eurcad

A shorter intraday outlook shows that prices could start to wane as we enter the middle of the week. Should momentum keep unfolding on the indicator, we could be set for a hidden bearish divergence which could bring the currency pair lower.

The first target now looks at the 23.6% of the 1.5670/1.5313 upside Fibonacci leg. Should prices breakthrough, then the base and convergence line of the Ichimoku indicators c...


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US Senators Make Stimulus Progress

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No End in Sight for Dollar Freefall

The US index fell 0.78% lower on Tuesday as it traded at its lowest level since April 2018.

Traders continued the sell-off amongst the dollar as risk aversion came into play. Yesterday, a bipartisan group of senators proposed a $908 billion spending package that will help cushion the economy before Biden becomes president.

In addition, ISM manufacturing numbers saw a decline from last month. Although an expansion occurred, struggles with worker absenteeism and temporary plant closures weighed heavily on the dollar.

Euro Soars To 2-Year High

The euro surged over 1% yesterday as it broke through the 1.20 ceiling.

Weakness in the US dollar was part of the catalyst for the jump, as well as policymakers being expected to announce additional monetary easing measures in the next Central Bank meeting.

Could we see 1.21 before the week is out?

Brexit Talks Enter Home Straight

The pound broke the 1.34 handle and ended yesterday’s session 0.74% higher.

Brexit ...


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Gold Prices Get a Boost from Weaker USD

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The precious metal has been posting strong gains on the back of the US dollar. Gold prices are up nearly 2% intraday on Tuesday.

The rebound also coincides with the impending correction in gold, as mentioned a day before. For the moment, we expect prices to retrace to the 1817.80 level.

If this level holds, then gold prices could establish resistance. This will in turn renew the downside bias in the precious metal.

The 1800 level once again comes into the picture, with the potential for gold to post further losses.

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WTI Crude Oil Losing the 45.00 Handle

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Oil prices are trading weaker on Tuesday. The declines come despite the US dollar taking a strong hit.

The move to the downside comes after oil prices failed to make any big moves to the upside.

As a result, WTI crude oil was consolidating around the 45.00 level for a considerable period of time.

After losing this handle, oil prices are likely to push lower. The next key support is near the 43.50 level.

However, we expect the pullback to see prices retracing the 45.00 handle.

If resistance is firmly established here, then we could expect to see further declines down to the 43.50 level.

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GBPUSD Attempts to Break the Trend Line

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The British pound sterling is posting strong gains on the back of a weaker dollar. After price action consolidated above the 1.3300 level, the cable is attempting to push higher.

For the moment, prices are stuck near the trend line. As long as the trend line holds as resistance, we could see the sideways consolidation to continue.

However, in the event of a breakout off the trend line, then the GBPUSD will be aiming for the 1.3500 level next.

For the moment, with the support level firmly established at 1.3300, the GBPUSD will be looking to make further gains to the upside.

Test your strategy on how the GBP will fare! Open your Orbex Account and start trading now. 

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Euro Rises to the Highest Levels Since 2018

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The euro currency is posting strong gains, rising over one percent on the day. The gains largely on the back of a weakening US dollar.

Earlier on Monday, the euro gave back the gains after testing the 1.2000 level. However, this decline saw prices retesting the trend line for support.

A rebound from this trend line saw price action breaking past this previous resistance level.

At the time of writing, the EURUSD currency pair is trading above the 1.2000 level.

The Stochastics oscillator is however posting a lower high. This could signal a possible correction in the near term.

The lower price level of 1.1900 is likely to act as support during this retracement.

Test your strategy on how the euro will fare with Orbex - Open your account now. 

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U.K. approves Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine

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The United Kingdom has become the first country in the world to approve the Pfizer/BioNtech Covid-19 vaccine!This emergency authorization marks a historic moment and clears the way for the deployment of a vaccine that is expected to play a critical role in halting the coronavirus outbreak. Given how the vaccine will be available in Britain from next week, this opens the way for mass immunisation and raises the prospects of the European Union and the United States making a similar move.Such encouraging news is poised to elevate global risk sentiment as investors become increasingly... Read More


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Asian stocks taking a break amid broader rally

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Asian equities are edging lower on Wednesday, unable to keep pace with the new record highs posted by the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices overnight. At the time of writing, Japan’s Nikkei 225 are among the regional bourses that are dipping into the red.For context, the MSCI Asia Pacific index, which measures the overall performance of regional equities, had posted its highest ever closing price on November 27th. November’s advance of 10.18 percent was its largest monthly gain since May 2009. The current pause is likely to be temporary before resuming its search for a new record... Read More


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IBM Rally Continues Amidst Layoffs News

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Shares in leading technology company IBM are trading a little higher pre-market on Tuesday. The company’s stock has enjoyed a firm rally over recent weeks as the broad uptick in risk appetite has translated into better demand for IBM stock. Shares have now rallied back up to around the 123 level from lows in November of around 106.

Redundancies News Leaked

The company has been in the spotlight this week due to leaked reports of planned layoffs in the UK and Europe. According to Bloomberg and other industry news sites, IBM is due to layoff 10,000 jobs across Europe as part of a cost-cutting drive.

The UK and Germany are thought to be the countries which will suffer the most job cuts. However, other countries such as Poland, Slovakia, Italy, and Belgium will also be affected. The job cuts are currently slated to account for around 20% of IBM’s workforce in the region.

Commenting on the situation, a spokesperson for IBM told Bloomberg:

“Our staffing decisions are made to provide the best ...


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Euphoric start to December

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New month? No problem, keep calm and carry on buying! With November’s US equity monthly returns the best ever, the last month of a monumental year has kicked off strongly with the bulls firmly in control again. After robust China data boosted expectations of a strong recovery, investors are focusing on the fast approval and rollout of virus vaccines, while there are hopes that Congress can put together a workable stimulus package.In this risk-on environment, the Dollar has slipped after its brief short squeeze on month-end demand yesterday and is currently trading modestly softer after... Read More


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The Market Implications of Treasury Secretary Yellen

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Janet Yellen is back. Well, as head of the Treasury Department.

As you likely recall, Yellen was the Federal Reserve Chair during the anemic economic recovery following the last recession.

She was initially slated to remain on the Federal Reserve Board until 2024. However, she stepped down at the end of her tenure at the head of the institution.

Yellen has been on the Board of Governors since 2004, and has gained a reputation as a solid dove.

In fact, during her confirmation hearing in 2013, her stance in favor of continued easing was seen as a challenge to winning approval in the Senate.

Somewhat ironically, she came into power in time to oversee the “normalization” of the Fed’s policy after the recession. During her tenure, the Fed raised rates only once and continued to wind down its balance sheet.

So, now running the Treasury?

The markets were quite happy when the initial reports came out that Yellen would be Secretary of the Treasury. There are several reasons fo...


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GBPUSD Intermediate Correction (4), Triangle or Flat?

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gbpusd elliott

The current GBPUSD structure hints to a horizontal correction wave (4) of the intermediate degree. It takes the form of a minor A-B-C flat.

The minor wave A in the form of a minute zigzag is fully complete. The corrective wave B is still under development.

We now see the construction of the final part in minute impulse wave ⓒ. This is expected to end at the previous high, which formed an intermediate wave (3).

Finally, after completion of correction wave B, we could see impulse wave C at the previous low of 1.267. This was marked by wave A.

gbpusd

An alternative scenario shows that intermediate corrective wave (4) completed its pattern as a horizontal contracting triangle.

A bullish intermediate impulse wave (5) has begun. It contains minuette waves (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv).

In the short term, we could see a rise in minuette wave (v) to the 1.370 area. Here, wave (5) will be at the 78.6% Fibonacci extension of wave (3).

Test your strategy on how the GBP will fare! Open your Orbex Account and star...


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USDZAR Positive After $15 Bounce

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usdzar technical

USDZAR has traded under a negative tone for the majority of 2020. Potential peaks have been met with heavy resistance as prices were pushed to a 9-month low.

The bottom found at the 17.26/15.10 downside Fibonacci leg, which has seen a recent bounce as momentum escalates. A strong long-term bullish divergence has propelled prices away from the $15 handle, and towards the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud.

We now await further indications of resistance at the said border, or if prices have the potential to enter the cloud. Should cloud engulfment take place, then the next targets for the currency pair would be the 23.6% and the 38.2%.

usdzar

A shorter intraday outlook shows that prices are starting to decline slightly, indicating a reversal. Even though the candlesticks are trading far above the Ichimoku cloud, the base and conversion lines hang on.

This could weight prices down, as a possible hidden bearish divergence on the momentum indicator looms heavy.

The next targets for further weakne...


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UK/EU Divorce Nears with No Deal in Sight

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End of Month Woes for the Dollar

The US index initially dropped to fresh yearly lows yesterday, before rebounding and ending the session 0.19% higher.

The index fell to levels last seen more than two years ago as the risk-on sentiment keeps weighing on the dollar.

As the number of covid cases increases in America, Donald Trump’s special adviser on the coronavirus, Scott Atlas, has resigned.

Could this be the final blow in the Trump administration before the College Electors finally confirm Biden’s victory?

Euro Touches 1.20, Then Retreats

The euro closed 0.30 lower on Monday after at one point hitting a 3-month high at the 1.20 handle.

The buoyant mood during yesterday’s session came as Eurozone finance ministers agreed to move forward with a long-awaited overhaul of their bailout fund.

Strengthening the euro and the entire European banking sector will make the eurozone even more robust and the banks more crisis-proof.

The Clock is Ticking for Brexit Clarity

The pound finished indeci...


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Gold Prices Lose the 200-Day MA Support

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The precious metal is extending losses as the 200-day moving average gives way.

Price action is, however, showing signs of a rebound near the current five-month low.

The Stochastics oscillator is also showing signs of a bullish divergence.

This could mean that gold prices will continue to retrace in the short term.

We expect the 1817.80 level to remain in play. A retest of this level as resistance will confirm the downside in the precious metal.

Test your strategy on how gold will fare with Orbex - Open your account now. 

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WTI Crude Oil Weaker as OPEC Meetings Get Underway

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wti crude oil

Oil prices are down about one percent intraday. The declines come as OPEC leaders meet in Vienna.

Rumors over the weekend suggested that OPEC+, which includes Russia, will keep the present production cuts in place.

Technically, oil prices are stuck near the resistance level of 45.50. Furthermore, there is also a consolidation with the trend line and the horizontal resistance level.

Therefore, if price breaks from this region, we could expect to see a stronger correction lower.

The next key level of interest will be near the 42.50 level of support.

Test your strategy on how Oil prices will fare - Open Your Orbex Account Now

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GBPUSD Maintains a Hold Above 1.3300

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The British pound sterling continues to trade flat from last week.

Price action is not making any new highs, leading to a consolidation. The support level near 1.3300 is holding up for the moment.

However, if price action fails near this support, then we could expect to see some strong declines.

For the moment, the consolidation is taking place between the trendline resistance and the horizontal support.

The Stochastics oscillator is also rather mixed, suggesting that the risks are equally balanced.

Test your strategy on how the GBP will fare! Open your Orbex Account and start trading now. 

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EURUSD Retreats from 1.2000

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The euro currency was posting strong gains on Monday, but price action gave back those gains intraday.

The bullish momentum saw the euro testing 1.2000 level once again for the first time in two months.

Following this brief retest, the common currency gave back the gains rather quickly.

The declines saw the euro falling to the trendline support. As long as this support holds, we could see some near term bounce to the upside.

The risks to the downside are also significant. If the euro loses the trendline support, then we expect to see a move back to the 1.1900 level.

Test your strategy on how the euro will fare with Orbex - Open your account now. 

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Technical Outlook: Yen Crosses in focus

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The mood across financial markets brightened on Tuesday morning amid positive factory data from China and more good news on the vaccine front. Asian stocks and U.S futures climbed as investors shrugged off the weak curs from Wallstreet overnight. Given the growing optimism over a potential coronavirus vaccine speeding up the pace of economic recovery, investors are willing to look past the surging cases in the United States to focus on life after the pandemic.Our currency spotlight this week swings on the Japanese Yen which has been titled a trade’s best friend in times of uncertainty.... Read More


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Taking stock: Equity bulls wishing for mo’ of November

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US stocks fell on Monday, with the dip capping the end of an otherwise spectacular November for equities. The S&P 500 posted a 10.75 percent advance in November, its largest monthly gain since April, while the Dow Jones index’s 11.84 percent advance was its biggest jump for a single month since January 1987![[{"fid":"12820","view_mode":"default","fields":{"format":"default","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false},"type":"media","field_deltas":{"1":{"format":"default","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":false,"... Read More


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FX Week Ahead: Dollar slides, Pound steady, Euro smiles

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The Dollar has entered the week on the wrong side of the bed, struggling to nurse the nasty hangover from last Friday’s selloff![[{"fid":"12812","view_mode":"default","fields":{"format":"default","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false},"type":"media","field_deltas":{"1":{"format":"default","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false}},"attributes":{"class":"media-element file-default","data-delta":"1"}}]]After securing a weekly close below the 92.00 level, the Dollar... Read More


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Pfizer Vaccine To Gain UK Regulatory Approval Imminently

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pfizer stock

Shares in US pharmaceutical company Pfizer are trading a little lower pre-market on Monday. Over recent weeks, the company has received a great deal of attention. This is due to the announcement that the COVID vaccine developed in a joint effort with its German partner BioNTech is ready to release publicly. 

Vaccine Success

Pfizer announced that the drug is shown to be over 90% effective in clinical trials, after being tested on tens of thousands of patients over several months. The drug has now been submitted for regulatory approval in the US and the UK.

Rally Fades Out

Despite the initial spike higher in reaction to the news at the start of the month, the move was quickly reversed. Shares in Pfizer have since come back down from their peak above the 5750 level and are now trading back down below the 5251.55 level.

The reversal represents the more moderate sentiment around the news following similar announcements from other firms.

However, it looks as though Pfizer’s drug is going to ...


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RBA Interest Rate Decision: What to Expect

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The RBA is scheduled to have its last meeting for the year, and won’t meet again until February 2nd.

Given the relatively long period, the uncertainty around the end of the year, and geopolitical developments in January, the Reserve Bank is going to want to make sure everything is in order before going on holiday.

After the historic rate cut to 0.1% at the last meeting, economists unanimously believe that the RBA will make no changes to policy this time.

Expectations are for the meeting to be uneventful. So much so that we expect the policy statement to be identical to last time, with the same forecasts.

Following prices

The key element from the RBA’s latest communication is their pledge to monitor current inflation instead of future inflation expectations. This is likely to be the case for the next couple of months.

Most analysts agree that inflation will remain below target for an extended period of time. This suggests that the RBA will have no reason to modify their poli...


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EURUSD Intermediate Flat or Double Zigzag?

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The EURUSD structure shows a  bullish impulse consisting of primary sub-waves ①-②-③-④-⑤.

Horizontal correction wave ④ recently ended, which took the form of an intermediate flat.

After the end of this correction, we saw a rapid rise in prices in a bullish impulse wave, which already includes sub-waves (1)-(2).

We now see the minor sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5 are forming an intermediate impulse wave (3). Prices are then expected to rise in a small wave 3 to the level of 1.209.

At the specified level, impulse 3 will be at 200% of impulse 1.

eurusd

An alternative scenario shows the primary corrective wave ④ is still under development.

The correction could take the structure of the double (W)-(X)-(Y) zigzag.

The ascending intervening wave (X) of the intermediate degree is a double W-X-Y zigzag.

It is likely that in the 1.200 area, at the previous maximum, the intervening wave (X) will complete its pattern.

Then prices could fall in the intermediate wave (Y) near 1.160, which the target is on the support...


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The Week Ahead: Job Security

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USDJPY Looks for Jobs Volatility

usdjpy

The much-battered US dollar may not be out of the woods yet. Judging by improved sentiment across the board – equities and commodities making new highs, investors are eager to exchange their greenback for riskier assets.

This week’s jobs data could shape markets’ view for the end of the year. A sluggish labor market would dampen the hope of recovery and suggest deeper stimulus down the road. In this case, the dollar may not be able to hold onto the psychological level of 103.00.

The lack of bids could send the pair towards the March low of 101. On the upside, 105.60 is the first obstacle bulls will need to overcome.

CADJPY Rises Backed by Buoyant Oil Markets

While still trading within a six-month range, the Canadian dollar has held well against the Japanese yen despite mood swings across markets.

The rally in the price of oil above last summer’s high appears to be a key reason for the loonie’s resilience. Traders may expect high volatility this...


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Weekly Fundamental Bulletin: Busy Start to the Week

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Last week’s highlights

US durable goods orders rise by 1.3% in October

The monthly durable goods orders report measuring the new orders for manufactured goods surged more than expected.

Data from the Commerce Department showed that durable goods orders rose by 1.3% in October. This comes on the back of a 2.1% increase in September.

October’s data also beat the general forecasts of a 0.9% increase. Excluding the transportation orders, durable goods orders also rose by 1.3% on the month.

Forecasts were for a 0.4% increase excluding transportation. Orders for non-defense capital goods and excluding aircraft rose by 0.7% during the month.

US third-quarter GDP co4nfirmed at 31.4%

The second revised GDP estimates for the United States did not show any major changes.

As per the initial estimates, data from the Commerce Department confirmed a 31.4% increase on an annual basis. This was for the three months ending September.

The second revised estimates showed a modest upside revision to ...


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Covid Vaccine Optimism Keeps S&P500 to the Upside

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The S&P500 index rose by about 2.37% on the week.

As a result, the index managed to pare losses from the week before.

It also broke past the previous week’s highs and is now back within reach from retesting the previous all-time highs formed two weeks ago.

Price action on the weekly chart suggests a possibility for further gains after the S&P500 index closes above the previous key level of 3588.

Therefore, as long as prices do not close below this level on a weekly basis, we could expect further gains.

This could mean that the S&P500 index could very well continue moving higher.

The risks to the downside remain minimal for the moment. But if the S&P500 breaks down below the 3588 level, then we might see a stronger correction taking place.

The 50-day moving average is likely to act as dynamic support near the 3454 level at the moment.

ConfidentToTrade

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Gold Prices Could Bounce Higher in the Short Term

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xauusd

The precious metal continued to move lower following a brief pause for two sessions.

However, as prices make a new low, there is a strong bullish divergence building up on the Stochastics oscillator.

This could mean that the precious metal might be preparing for a short term correction.

Still, the gains could see price testing the 1817.80 level. Given that this level held up as support previously, a rebound could see resistance forming.

This will keep the downside bias intact. But if gold breaks above 1817.80, then a larger correction towards 1850 is quite likely.

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WTI Crude Oil Settles Back Near $45.50

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wti crude oil

Oil prices pared losses to close on a bullish note on Friday. This put price action back near Wednesday’s highs close to the $45.50 levels.

The overall short term momentum is to the upside in the oil markets. However, watch how prices react near the rising trend line and the horizontal price level of 45.50.

A close below this level could signal a correction that could push oil prices back to the 43.50 level.

To the upside, if the markets remain bullish, we expect prices to continue higher.

The next key area will be the psychological round number of $50.00.

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The post WTI Crude Oil Settles Back Near $45.50 appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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