How to trade the Wolfe Wave pattern

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Wolfe waves are made out of a number of subsequent chart waves that form a very distinct pattern. The Wolfe wave pattern is named after a trading guru called Bill Wolfe. He identified that when price action remains within a price channel and makes a false breakout on the fifth wave, it usually starts a reversal of the prevailing trend in the opposite direction.

He clarified that Wolfe waves can help traders find a terrific entry point in the market at the beginning of a potential reversal with a great reward to risk ratio. Moreover, it can also pinpoint a potential exit point or offer traders a price target based on the symmetric configuration of the price pattern.

The first step in identifying a Wolfe waves pattern is finding a price channel.

 

The Prerequisite of Forming a Wolfe Waves Pattern is the Price Channel

Any seasoned trader would know that price never moves straight up or goes straight down. If we zoom within a daily timeframe Candle, we can see that the price on the hourly ...


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Listos para datos de empleo de Inglaterra

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June UK Employment

Esta semana será importante para la libra esterlina por el lado económico. Mientras los noticieros se enfocan en quién será el próximo primer ministro y qué significa para Brexit, no podemos olvidarnos de los datos económicos. El primero de tres eventos importantes será mañana con los datos de empleo.

El mercado se enfoca en el cambio en el número de solicitantes de beneficios de desempleo, y tiene una tradición de mover al mercado. Habrá atención especial esta vez entre los traders para poder adivinar qué pasará con los datos del IPC el miércoles, y qué significa para la política del BOE.

¡Prueba cómo resulta tu estrategia en GBP con Orbex! Abre su cuenta ya.

Qué estamos buscando

Todos los datos importantes se publican a la misma vez, entonces podría haber algo de volatilidad en los mercados inmediatamente después. También son los primeros datos macro desde el fin de semana, entonces eso debería darle más realce.

Número de solicitantes

El número de solicitantes de prestaciones de dese...


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Dollar bruised and wounded by US rate cut bets; Gold snoozes

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The Dollar is entering the trading week looking quite shaky and vulnerable as expectations mount over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month. Eager investors who were looking for an opportunity to attack the Greenback last week were given the thumps up after dovish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced rate cut bets. Dollar weakness is set to become a dominant theme in the week ahead, especially if economic data from the United States prints below forecasts. Technical traders will continue to closely observe how the Dollar Index behaves around the 96.50... Read More


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Don’t ignore the evidence, part-time forex traders are the most successful

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Ambition should always be tempered with reality. When curious and pro-active investors first discover retail forex trading as an initial hobby, it’s inevitable they dream of reaching for the stars. That ambition and vision shouldn’t be discouraged as without it you’d have very little motivation to trade. You enter this industry to become financially independent, to build considerable wealth for yourself and to provide a more luxurious lifestyle for you and those closest to you. Sure, there are more ethereal, higher purpose and self-development reasons to become a highly competent and profitable trader, but mostly it’s all about profitability.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of retail traders are employed and you’ll be locked into a catch-22 situation; you can’t give up your day job to trade because you require the security and the money in order to indulge your interest and passion in financial markets. Therefore, despite your desperate desire to give up the day job it pays t...


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USD Retreats Amid Dovish Fed Expectations

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usd

USD Still Weighed on By Dovish FOMC Minutes

The US dollar has traded lower over the European morning on Monday. The greenback started out well, trading higher, but initial gains were quickly reversed heading towards the US session.

With no key domestic data today, action is likely to be subdued as we enter the summer trading lull when the market is typically quieter. USD index trades 96.39 last as the decline from last week’s dovish FOMC meeting minutes starts once again.

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USD Weakness Leads to EUR Higher

EURUSD is a little higher against USD so far today. Dovish Fed expectations appear to be outweighing ECB easing expectations at this stage, keeping EURUSD supported as it continues its recovery off the 1.1217 level. The pair traded at 1.1278 last. In the absence of any key data, price is likely to remain driven by USD flows.

GBP Rallying

GBPUSD is having a quiet yet positive start to the week. GBP lifted g...


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Get Ready for June UK Employment

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June UK Employment

This week is going to be important for the pound on an economic front. While the headlines continue to focus on the Tory leadership contest and what that means for Brexit, we can’t forget about key economic data. The first of the three major events coming up is tomorrow’s employment data.

The UK claimant change is the number the market focuses on. And it’s got a tradition of moving the exchange rate. Traders will be extra attentive to it for clues for what we might expect on Wednesday’s CPI numbers, and what that means for BOE policy.

Test your strategy on how the GBP will fare! Open your Orbex Account and start trading now. 

What We are Looking For

All the major data comes out at the same time, so it’s not unusual for the market to bounce back and forth a bit at first. This is the first data we get after the weekend, as well, which ought to make it a little more impactful

Claimant Count

Expectations are for the number of people seeking unemployment assist...


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Video Analysis For The FX Majors 15.07.2019

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Here is our weekly video analysis for the FX Majors. We will be breaking down time-frames while highlighting what you should be looking out for this week!

Act_TradeIdeas

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China’s GDP falls to a twenty-seven year record low, as USD continues to fall in correlation with rising USA equity markets

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China’s year on year GDP growth came in as forecast by Reuters at 6.4%, the quarterly figure of Q2 did beat the 1.5% forecast by coming in at 1.6%, ahead of the Q1 reading of 1.4%. Analysed in isolation the Q2 figure was the lowest in 27 years, since 1992. The improvement between the Q1 and Q2 figures caused analysts and traders to consider that China’s economy may have reached the bottom of its recent, tariff induced slump. Other Chinese data indicated a modest improvement in the globe’s second largest economy as industrial production and retail sales also beat the various news agencies’ predictions.

At 8:45am U.K. time the yuan traded down -0.10% at 6.874. The antipodean currencies rose versus their peers as a consequence of the improved Chinese data, the economic performance of Australia and New Zealand are closely linked to China’s economic growth. At 9:00am U.K. time AUD/USD traded up 0.25% reclaiming position above the 0.700 handle at 0.703 as price threatened to breach ...


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“Trading Like A Banker” Webinar Series – Episode 3

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It’s time for the third installment of our hit webinar series: Trading Like A Banker.

This series dives deep into the intricate world of institutional trading, revealing the tips and tricks we can learn from bankers and apply to our personal trading journey.

Join our responsible trading community - Open your Orbex account now! 

In this episode entitled “Mean Reversion and The E.O.H. Effect”, our Head of Investment Research clears up some very common misconceptions that could make a world of a difference in your trading strategy.

Find out what mean reversions actually are, and why they can’t just be used at any time, and in any market.

This episode is EVERYTHING you need to better understand the markets, providing you with the knowledge you won’t find ANYWHERE else online.

So don’t hesitate any longer! Register below and unlock the secret to trading like a banker!

Attendance is EXCLUSIVE to LIVE Orbex traders – and registration is required.

Don’t have an account yet? No stress! Open you...


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Weekly Market Outlook: Inflation & Jobs Dominate

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market outlook

The economic calendar for the week ahead will see the inflation and the jobs report dominating the markets. Various economies are expected to release their respective inflation data while Australia and the UK will also be releasing their monthly jobs report.

In terms of central bank meetings, this week, they are expected to take a backseat. But the inflation data could very well shape the expectations of the central bank’s forward guidance for the respective economies.

A somewhat slower week from the US is expected. Only the retail sales report will be the big-ticket item this week. Retail sales in the US are expected to rise at a slower pace compared to May. Still, the expectations are for an increase. If retail sales match or beat estimates, it would mark a third consecutive monthly gain in retail spending.

Trading the news requires access to extensive market research - and that's what we do best. Open your Orbex account now.

Data from the UK will cover the jobs, inflation, and retai...


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Earnings Reports VS Rate CUT Speculations

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market insights

In today’s market insights Stavros reveals how the dollar and the US equities are likely to perform on renewed rate cut speculations and amid the quarterly earnings reports. Watch as he analyses the US index and the SPX500 and explains why he anticipates a fresh all-time-high in equities despite companies’ results are projected to slow down!

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US PPI Rises Slower in June

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Producer prices data from the US released on Friday saw a slower pace of growth in June. Official data showed that inflation at the factory gate grew just 0.1% on the month in June.

The slower pace came as energy prices fell 3.1% while trade services offset the declines with a 1.3% increase. Core PPI which excludes food, energy and trade services remained flat during the month. The USD closed bearish by Friday’s end.

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Euro Gains as Industrial Production Rises

The euro got a boost from the latest industrial production figures. Data showed that the eurozone’s industrial production grew 0.9% on the month in May. This was better than the forecasts for a 0.2% increase. Despite the uptick in industrial production, the overall industrial activity still remains weak.

Will the EURUSD Push Higher?

The currency pair has been in a rebound after prices fell close to the support area of 1.1188 last week. Price action qui...


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US earnings to test the bull market strength

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US equities ended last week at new record highs as investors became more confident of fresh stimulus measures by major central banks led by the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had cleared any doubts during his semi-annual testimony before the Congress as he gave more weight on weakening global growth outlook and persistently low inflation. Markets are no longer questioning whether the Fed will cut rates, but by how much the central bank will cut. The shift in policy from tightening to easing created an environment of “buy anything” from stocks to bonds and even commodities.... Read More


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Will U.S. equity indices continue to reach record highs at the expense of the U.S. dollar?

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The U.S. equity markets maintained their gravity defying rises last week as the DJIA, SPX and NASDAQ indices all continued to take out record highs. It’s worth noting that the DJIA finally broke through the 20,000 level in January 2017 and here we are, thirty months later and 27,000 has been breached representing a thirty-five percent rise. The rise in the NASDAQ has been more stunning, the tech-index has risen by circa 60% during the same period with the FAANG stocks accounting for the majority of the growth.

The corporate tax cuts the Trump administration introduced are the key factors causing such stellar rises due to increased investment into financial markets in search of dividends and yield, the market rises are not as a consequence of economic growth. As several  major corporate firms in the USA publish their latest reports and earnings this week it’ll be fascinating to note if this fiscal stimulus has continued to juice the markets, or if the boost first noted in ...


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Earn Money by Taking the Right Decisions and Never Deviate From the Set goals

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Smart money choices can improve every aspect of your life. However, to do so means that you are completely intentional with every financial decision you make. It requires all the discipline, and resolve for you to achieve both your long term and even short term money goals.

Here are some of the ways you can earn money by taking the right decisions and never deviate from the set goals.

1. Invest In a College Degreegraduation

A college education is, in fact, one of the best investment decisions anyone can ever make. This is because a simple, but well thought-out college degree can have a big influence on your future earnings, and money solutions.

Although it can be quite costly, you can purposely make it your main focus and priority to save money towards achieving your dream. You also need to be careful in choosing a college major, one which guarantees placement in a favorable and well-paying job, once you are through with your education.

The best thing about college and career choices is that you are ...


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Turkish Lira Still Sinking After Central Banker Fired

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usdtry

TRY Craters on CBRT Shock

The USD keeps moving higher against the Turkish Lira since President Erdogan fired the country’s central bank governor, Murat Cetinkaya, earlier in the week.

Cetinkaya had been governor of the CBRT since April 2016. However, Erdogan has long been opposed to the displaced head of the CBRT due to his program of raising interest rates.

Erdogan has been very vocal in both his support for lower interest rates in Turkey as well as his opposition to Cetinkaya. He even went as far as to describe interest rates as the “mother and father of all evil” and had long called for the CBRT to lower rates.

CBRT Raised Rates Against President’s Wishes

Despite Erdogan’s opposition, the CBRT had been pressing ahead with its policy of monetary policy tightening. The bank last lifted rates in September 2018 with a huge hike from 17% to 24%. The bank stated that a:

“Tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained decisively until inflation outlook displays a significant impr...


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AUDUSD 360° – Head & Shoulders Pattern Looking Bullish

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audusd

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Por qué operar con oro y crudo juntos

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Trade Oil & Gold Together

Dependiendo a quién le preguntes, petróleo y oro son los commodities más transados en el mundo, o por lo menos lo es el crudo. Todos reconocen que son importantes, el desacuerdo está en si el oro cuenta como commodity o moneda. De todas formas, son bienes muy cotizados, pero ambos tienen características únicas que los hacen aún más rentables al operarlos en conjunto.

No es en vano que se le dice “oro negro” al petróleo. Interesantemente, no es una mala metáfora para explicar esta relación especial que tienen.

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Lo básico

La principal característica del oro es que es una reserva de valor, para eso fue usado por miles de años. Tiene varias características que lo hacen ideal para ello: no corrode y ocupa poco espacio.

Por otro lado, el petróleo se necesita ocupar. Dependiendo del tipo, se degrada en el tiempo, y cuesta mucho guardar. Por esta razón, la mayoría del petróleo que se produce se consume rápidamen...


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What a Poker beating algorithm can teach FX traders

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Over the past 24 hours the media has reported that an A.I. robot named “Pluribus” has managed to beat multiple players at Poker. The research was jointly undertaken by Facebook and the Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Pluribus has been built on the technique originally used to create Libratus, a poker playing A.I. that beat four human poker professionals over the course of 120,000 hands in January 2017. However, the Libratus experiment involved mainly one on one competition and not the typical six player tournament version of the game. Pluribus managed to beat a full range of six players, including the world’s best.

The creators of Pluribus have lauded and stressed its simplicity, in some ways they’ve stripped it down further than the original Libratus, the A.I. doesn’t require massive processing power in fact the programme can be run from a laptop. Libratus used circa 15 million core hours on a supercomputer to train. Whereas, Pluribus required just 128...


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USD Down Again Despite Stronger CPI

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USD Down Again

USD Retreats Despite Positive CPI Surprise

The US dollar continues trades lower once again today as the sell-off from the FOMC minutes on Wednesday resumes. The details in the minutes have bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting in July. Yesterday, USD reversed losses in response to the June CPI which came in higher than expected at 2.1% on the core reading. USD index trades 96.57 last, still well below the 97.10 resistance level.

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Euro Still Under Pressure

EURUSD has seen higher levels against USD again today, benefiting from the current weakness in the greenback. A lack of tier one domestic data has seen quiet trading for the single currency this week which has mainly been driven by USD flows. EURUSD trades 1.1264 last, capped against resistance at the level formed by prior swing highs in May.

GBP Rally Remains Intact

GBPUSD is continuing its recovery battle against USD today as b...


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Gold Posts Longest Winning Streak Since 2006

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metals

Gold

 

While momentum has contracted somewhat, gold has posted its eighth consecutive winning week, a streak not seen since 2006.

Gold Boosted By Fed Easing Expectations

The main driver for upside in gold this week was the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes.

In the June meeting, the Fed outlined the likely need for monetary easing in the near future. Since then, the market has increased bets on a July rate cut. Consequently, the minutes took on extra importance as traders sought further clarity on the likelihood of a rate cut this month.

TradingGold

FOMC Minutes Support Rate Cut

The minutes did, indeed, confirm the Fed’s bias towards easing. The minutes stated:

“Many judged additional monetary policy accommodation would be warranted in the near term should these recent developments prove to be sustained and continue to weigh on the economic outlook.”

Indeed, “Several” policymakers noted their preference for a rate cut in the coming months. They judged that it “could help cushion the ef...


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Why Trade Oil & Gold Together

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Trade Oil & Gold Together

Depending on who you ask, gold and oil are the two most traded commodities in the markets. The debate isn’t over how important they are, but rather about whether gold is a currency or a commodity.

Either way, both are very popular trading vehicles. And both have unique characteristics that make them not only profitable on their own, but in combination.

Not for nothing, oil is sometimes colloquially known as “black gold”. And interestingly, that’s not all that bad of a metaphor to describe the unique relationship between these two special assets.

TradingOil

The Basics

Gold’s primary trait is its use as a store of value. It’s been used this way for thousands of years. There are several properties that make it such a good store of value, like the fact that it doesn’t require a lot of space and it doesn’t corrode over time.

Petroleum, on the other hand, needs to be used up. Depending on the type of petroleum, it degrades over time and costs quite a lot...


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U.S. dollar slips versus its peers, Bitcoin survives Trump’s first major criticism

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Since the June FOMC meeting minutes were released, during Jerome Powell’s delivery of his testimony on Capitol Hill in front of a finance panel, USD has fallen versus its peers as investors and traders have increased their bets that the interest rate will be cut by up to 0.5%, at the culmination of the July 30-31 FOMC meeting. That downward pressure continued during the Sydney Asian sessions through to the beginning of the London-European session. Upcoming comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans scheduled for Friday and New York Fed President John Williams on Monday, will provide a chance to gauge how unanimous the dovish monetary policy stance from the central bank is.

In an interesting development President Trump took to Twitter to savage the crypto-coin industry on Thursday evening, stating that the coins weren’t money, they had no value as a utility and they could facilitate illegal activities. Despite his sweeping criticism the impact on the value of Bitcoin (BT...


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FED Chair MAINTAINS Dovish Stance

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market insights

In today’s market insights Stavros talks about the second dovish testimony and why FED and ECB turned a blind eye to rising inflation! Watch as he analyses eurodollar and #cable and explains why he expects them to move higher!

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FED Chair MAINTAINS Dovish Stance

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market insights

In today’s market insights Stavros talks about the second dovish testimony and why FED and ECB turned a blind eye to rising inflation! Watch as he analyses eurodollar and cable and explains why he expects them to move higher!

The post FED Chair MAINTAINS Dovish Stance appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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USD Flat as Inflation Rises Slightly

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A day after the Fed Chair Powell’s comments to Congress sent equities higher and the dollar lower, the markets were stabilizing. The US dollar closed the day flat, while the Dow Jones index broke fresh ground, testing the 27,000 milestone. US inflation showed a modest increase of 0.1% on the month while core CPI rose 0.3% on the month. The markets look to the producer price index data due later today.

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Euro Muted to ECB Meeting Minutes

The European Central Bank released its monthly meeting minutes yesterday. The minutes revealed that policymakers were contemplating whether to restart the bond purchase program. Many members also grew concerned about the lack of inflationary pressures. The euro did not react much to the release of the minutes.

EURUSD Rebounds off Support

The common currency was seen reversing losses off the 1.1250 level of support. The current momentum could potentially establish further gain...


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US PPI to Advance for a 3rd Month

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us ppi

The monthly producer prices index report will be coming out today. Economists forecast that the producer prices index will rise for a third consecutive month. On a month over month basis, core PPI is expected to advance 0.2%. This marks the same pace of increase as the month before.

Headline producer prices index are forecast to rise 0.1% on the month, rising at the same pace as the month before. On a year over year basis, headline PPI is expected to rise 2.0% in the twelve months ending June. This marks a modest increase from the 1.8% gains in May.

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Core PPI rate is expected to hold steady, rising at the same pace of 2.3% as it did the month before.

Today’s PPI data could potentially signal an increase in consumer prices in the coming months. This could have an impact on the Fed’s current dovish view on monetary policy.

US Producer Prices Index Rises for 2nd Month

The producer prices index data posted gain...


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DJIA breaches record 27,000 as U.S. deficit misses forecasts

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The dislocation between the record rises in U.S. equity indices and various aspects of what could be termed “the real economy” in America continues. Many analysts have cited that outflows from the wider markets, such as from hedge funds, are at levels not seen since the depths of the Great Recession. However, many funds and individuals are parking their investments in the top U.S. firms as a safe haven play versus looming recessionary concerns. Therefore, the SPX and DJIA are reaching record highs not necessarily because of market faith, more likely funds are scrambling for the blue-chip stocks which could prove to be recession proof.

More evidence of the unusual new normal is illustrated by the huge deficit the U.S. economy is currently running, a figure which when published on Thursday caused very little concern amongst market commentators and analysts as Wall Street appears gripped in risk on fever. June’s budget deficit figure missed the forecast of $7.9b coming in at $8.2...


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Risk sentiment still sensitive to US-China trade tensions

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Asian stocks are mostly in positive territory, encouraged by the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting a new record high above 27,000 while the S&P500 is just shy of the psychological 3,000 level. Markets appear set to end the week in risk-on mode, as the Japanese Yen remains above the 108 psychological mark against the US Dollar, Gold has moderated closer to the $1400 support level, while yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasuries remain elevated above 2.10 percent at the time of writing. US-China trade tensions continue to loom over global sentiment, with investors still awaiting... Read More


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Qué esperar del balance comercial chino

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China's Trade Balance

El balance comercial chino tiende a mover a los mercados en todo el mundo, entonces es importante aún si no sigues al yuan. El gobierno ha estado recientemente poniendo énfasis sobre el tema de las exportaciones de servicios, lo que podría provocar un cambio en la forma que se interpreta la política comercial del gigante asiático.

El drama sobre la problemática de los aranceles entre EE.UU. y China toma los titulares, entonces echémosle un vistazo a los datos más profundos para poder dilucidar cómo podrían reaccionar los mercados. Esta vez la publicación es más importante porque es el último dato relevante antes de la publicación del PIB 2T el lunes.

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Qué estamos esperando

El consenso entre los analistas es que el balance comercial de junio marcará un superávit de $44,7 mil millones, un aumento desde los $41,7 mil millones anteriors. Eso lo llevaría de vuelta a estar ...


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