Orbex Market Flash

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The battered vehicle that is the ongoing Brexit negotiations took another blow this week as the EU rejected PM May’s Brexit plan, the so-called “chequers deal,” which proposes the UK and EU share a common rulebook for goods and services post-Brexit to avoid the need for customs checks on the Irish border. However, the EU feels this will give UK companies an unfair advantage.

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During a private meeting of national leaders in Salzburg, the European Council president Donald Tusk shot down Theresa May’s Chequers proposals, calling the plan “unworkable.” President Macron of France said that the deal was “not acceptable” and to salvage a deal from the crisis, PM May must quickly present “new propositions.”

October Deadline For Irish Border Issue

The EU has also now given May an October deadline for a solution to the issue of the Irish border which, given its status as the most challenging obstacle, looks incredibly precarious. May reportedly told the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar that striking...


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10 Trading Tools You Really Should Be Using

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The world of trading is fast-paced and competitive requiring both knowledge and skills. Thankfully, several free tools are designed to make the job easier for traders.

Here are ten useful tools that will help you stay in control of your trades, generate new ideas and execute them, while also monitoring your positions.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

1.     Forex Economic Calendar

Traders often speculate on prices during important news releases and report publications. There are others who entirely stay off the markets during these times. Whatever your choice may be, keeping track of the important economic events around the world is necessary for forex trading. This is how you will gain insight into the important economic indicators influencing the market. Past as well as forecasted figures could help you understand price trends. You will be better equipped with a suitable strategy when you follow the economic calendar.

2.     Trading Tips from ...


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Fixed Or Moving Stop Losses

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Understanding the importance of stop losses, whether you are using them just for security or as an integral part of your strategy, there is still a debate among traders about whether fixed or moving stop losses are better – or, a combination of both.

The easy way out is to say, “it depends on your trading style,” but that doesn’t help answer the question of which one is better for you. The reality is, like most things that depend on circumstances, there are pros and cons to both. Some of those advantages and disadvantages are specific to a trading style, and some are generalized.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

Some traders can get locked in the idea that because they’ve found the optimal trading mechanic for themselves, this is the optimal trading strategy, and can be a little overly defensive of it, or too strident in advocating for it. Let’s forget that for a moment.

What’s the difference between mov...


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Weekly Metals Wrap

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Gold

With the US Dollar having weakened over the course of the week, gold prices were able to post a small recovery, rallying up off last week’s lows to close green on the week. Gauging the USD reaction to the latest trade war headlines has become increasingly difficult over recent weeks. USD had been gaining actively over past months as the market viewed it as being the ultimate winner in the US trade dispute with China.

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However, the recent news that the US and China are due to restart negotiations put downward pressure on the currency which has remained despite the trade war escalating once again as the US applies a new 10% tariff to further Chinese goods and China responding with its only tax on $60 billion worth of US goods. It seems that the market is looking past these moves, which were widely signaled and is instead focusing on the prospect of negotiation.

gold

Gold prices are still fighting to get back above the July 2017 low of 1205.29. An upside break of this level is needed to ...


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Could the Dollar be turning the corner?

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Currencies throughout Asia have welcomed the news that the Dollar has tumbled to a near 3-month low. A number of different currencies in the region have advanced against the Greenback, with the weakening momentum for the Dollar benefiting the Indian Rupee the most at time of writing. The indications that the market is turning more negative towards the Greenback would represent very positive news for emerging market currencies in particular, which have received a pounding over the past couple of months in response to the prolonged Dollar strength in the market. This can be seen during... Read More


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Intraday Technical Analysis 21 September

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 21/09/2018

The European trading session saw the Swiss National Bank leaving its monetary policy unchanged. The SNB’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was widely expected.

The Norges bank monetary policy meeting saw interest rates being hiked. Norway’s key interest rates now stand at 0.75% from 0.50% which marked a record low in interest rates history for Norway.

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Retail sales data in the UK rose 0.3% on the month. This beat estimates of a 0.2% decline. Previous month’s retail sales were also revised higher to show a 0.9% increase.

Data from the U.S. showed existing home sales increased by 5.34 million. The data was slightly below the median estimates.

The economic calendar today will see the release of the flash manufacturing and services PMI reports from the Eurozone. Data is expected to show no significant changes to the business activity in the sectors.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet. Canada’s inflation data will be the s...


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EURUSD – Reverse trend line to support dips

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Monthly: Trading within a bearish channel formation. Trend line resistance is seen at 1.2514. Levels close to the 38.2% pullback level of 1.2522 (from 1.6038-1.0349) found sellers. Majority of last month’s initial selloff was recaptured. Follow through buying has been posted in September.

Weekly: We look for a 5-wave completion at 1.1300 (Elliott Wave). We now look to be forming the corrective AB=CD pattern to the upside. The sequence looks to target 1.1950, just above the 50% Fibonacci level of 1.1928. The trend of lower highs has been broken. Reverse trend line support now comes in a 1.1716. Bespoke support is currently located at 1.1725. Bespoke resistance at 1.1875

Daily: Looks to have broken a reverse Head and Shoulders patter to the upside. The measured move target is 1.2140 (just above the 61.8% pullback level of 1.2076). We look to buy dips

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OECD sees weaker economic outlook than previously expected

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On Thursday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) had announced a revised global economic growth outlook, stating that the world economy is on the course for growth of 3.7% this year and in 2019. However, in May this year the expected outlook was 3.8% in 2018 and 3.9% in the following year. The reason for the lower expectation is caused by the tensions between the US and its major trade partners that have influenced the confidence and investments. According to the OECD chief economist, Laurence Boone, the exports have evidently started to decline, which was evident in the fast few months and there are great expectations that further decline in trade growth will endure. However, the economic outlook for the US is not so gloomy due to the tax cuts and government spending, thus the outlook for America has remained unchanged for 2018, staying at 2.9% but for 2019 it was revised from 2.8% to 2.7%.

The increased interest rates and stronger US dollar may cause pro...


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China’s consumer inflation advances as PPI slows

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The latest consumer prices data from China covering consumer and producer prices showed an overall increase in inflation.

Consumer inflation in China accelerated to a six month high in August. The gains came with an increase in vegetable prices while pork prices posted a soft decline.

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The official data released on Monday showed that consumer price index rose 2.3% in August 2018 compared to a year ago. In July, consumer price inflation rose 2.1%, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed last week.

China Inflation Rate
China Inflation Rate: 2.3%, August 2018 (Source: Tradingeconomics.com)

Food prices gained 1.7% on the year in August compared to the year before and accelerated from 0.5% in July. Price of fresh vegetables increased 4.3% for August expanding the gains from a 3.8% increase in July. Vegetable prices added 0.11 percentage points to the headline inflation rate.

Pork prices, on the other hand, continued to post a drag. Pork prices fell 4.9% in August. The declines were soft compared to J...


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Dollar dips on NAFTA uncertainty, bears eye 93.50

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It was already shaping up to be a negative trading week for the Dollar as easing trade concerns dented the currency’s safe-haven appeal. Buying sentiment towards the Greenback deteriorated further on Thursday following reports that the US and Canada are unlikely to reach a breakthrough on NAFTA talks this week.  Although the expected uncertainty may support the Dollar, investors seem more concerned about how NAFTA developments may impact the US economy. The initial optimism over the United States having less to lose from trade tensions seems to be wearing off, and this remains one of... Read More


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Orbex Market Flash

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GBP bulls received a further boost this week from solid inflation data released yesterday, fuelling a fresh spate of buying in the British Pound. The latest CPI inflation readings for August showed both headline and core inflation beating expectations. Headline inflation rose 2.7% over August, far outperforming expectations of 2.4% and hitting its highest level in six months. Core inflation was also substantial, printing 2.1% vs. 1.8% expected.

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The increases were mainly driven by upward price movements in recreational goods, transport, and clothing with the ONS highlighting price hikes in theatre tickets, sea fares and new autumn clothing as the biggest drivers of the rise in inflation. Meanwhile, mobile phone costs, furniture, and household goods were all seen exerting downward pressure on inflation

BoE Under Pressure

While GBP is rallying hard today, the moves will not be welcomed by the BOE which is not looking to raise rates again until after the Brexit deadline in March 2019, whe...


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Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report

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Crude oil prices were higher this week as the latest data from the Energy Information Administration showed that US crude oil inventories fell for a fifth week last week, dropping 2.1 million barrels to 394.1 million barrels per day for the week ending September 14th.  Crude stockpiles are now back down to levels not seen since February 2015. However, the decrease in stocks was less than expected with analysts had forecast a 2.7 million barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles were also reduced last week, seeing un-seasonally strong demand falling 1719k barrels versus an expected gain of 100k barrels.

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The US Sanctions Approaching Fast

The market is fast approaching the November 4th starting date for US sanctions on Iran, and it seems that the market fears that OPEC won’t be able to boost production enough to make up for the lost supply from Iran, causing tightness in the market.

OPEC, along with non-OPEC oil producing countries such as Russia are due to meet in Algeria on Sunday to discus...


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Pound boosted by retail sales, EU summit in focus

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The Pound was thrown back into the limelight today after UK retail sales unexpectedly rose in August. UK retail sales dished out an upside surprise by rising 0.3% last month as shoppers shrugged off Brexit concerns over the summer period. While this encouraging report adds to a number of solid economic indicators produced by the UK, investors are likely to remain more concerned with Brexit developments. Market optimism over Britain striking a Brexit deal with the European Union has been the primary driver behind the Pound’s appreciation in recent weeks. However, it is becoming evident... Read More


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5 Incredible Facts You Didn’t Know About Central Banks

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Central banks have become an essential element to the currency markets. From setting interest rates to intervening in the markets, to printing money, central banks have remained the core and one of the primary reasons for driving prices in the FX markets.

The history of central banks is one that is interesting and evokes both awe and suspicion. There are numerous alternative theories floating around about what central banks really do.

As traders one might not read too much into the central bank history, but here are 5 really interesting facts you should know.

1. The world’s oldest central bank

Sweden’s Riksbank stakes claim to being the world’s oldest central bank and the 3rd oldest central bank that is still functional. The central bank started in the year 1668 and started off as a private bank. Following a rather interesting history thereafter and leading to a collapse of the Stockholms Banco, the bank was transferred to Riksens Standers Bank. The name was eventuall...


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Copper – Broken out of a wedge pattern

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Technical

Copper – Broken out of a wedge pattern.

Weekly: The selloff has posted a correction count on the weekly chart. The 50% Fibonacci retracement is located at 2.628 from 1.936 to 3.320. The bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart the positive for sentiment. The corrective cycle lower looks to have stalled.

Daily:  A break of the short-term downward trending resistance at 2.689 should encourage buying. Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. We look for a re-test of the downward trending support. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 2.690, resulting in improved risk/reward. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.

Intraday: Broken out of the wedge formation to the upside. A sequence of intraday higher highs and lows has been posted. A break of 2.745 is needed to co...


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Investors ignored the latest round of tariffs; For how long?

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Equity markets do not seem to be concerned over the latest phase of the U.S.-China trade war. Investors have been pricing negative news for months which has led several emerging markets into bear territory.  The 10% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods seemed to be a relief rather than a catastrophe given that markets were bracing for a 25% figure. Similarly, the Chinese response was a softer hit than anticipated after announcing that the nation won’t engage in currency devaluation. There’s no doubt that China’s economy will take a bigger hit if tensions... Read More


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How World Leader Decisions Could Affect Your Trades?

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The forex markets revolve around the daily happenings around the world. Geopolitical events, economical new releases, wars and natural disasters, all affect currency prices. And, when world leaders make important decisions, how can they not change at least the currency of their own country? This is why traders need to keep their fundamental analysis up to date, to be in a better position to make trading decisions.

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In an age of increasing social media connectivity, news about crucial decisions taken by various political leaders travels at lightning speeds. US President Donald Trump is highly active on Twitter. We have seen how his tweets affect market movements almost instantaneously.

The Trump Effect

When President Trump came to power, many agreed that while his decisions could lead to US growth, it might not translate to growth for the global economy. American stocks indeed soared as he was elected, but many were skeptical about his decision to reduce imports and put trade sanctions ...


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Intraday Technical Analysis 20 September

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 20/09/2018

The U.S. dollar pulled back on Wednesday amid a slight improvement in the emerging markets. Economic data was mostly quiet from the U.S.

Consumer prices in the UK advanced 2.7% on the year ending August 2018. This beat the median forecasts of a 2.4% increase. Core CPI also advanced 2.1% beating estimates of 1.8% increase.

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Data from the U.S. saw housing starts rising at a modest pace last month. Housing starts rose 9.2% in August from the month before.

New Zealand’s quarterly GDP report was released during the overnight trading session. The GDP advanced 1.0% during the three months ending June 2018. Economists were expecting a 0.8% increase during the period.

Later in the day, the Swiss National Bank will be holding its monetary policy meeting. The SNB is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting.

The UK will be releasing the retail sales figures for the month. Forecasts show a 0.2% decline in retail sales foll...


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Bank of Japan kept policy unchanged; UK inflation unexpectedly jumps in August and US housing starts rise

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Yesterday the investors were keeping a close look at the news coming from Japan, UK and the US, where the first release came from BOJ with the decision to keep the monetary stimulus program unchanged. At the end of the two day meeting, the central bank maintained the 10-year bond yield target, guidance on interest rates and asset purchases, which was highly expected by the economists. The expectancy is that the BOJ no changes will be seen until 2020 and it will continue monitoring the effects of the policy adjustments made in July this year that had an aim to making the stimulus more sustainable. In addition, the Governor of BOJ, Haruhiko Kuroda had stated yesterday that the monetary easing will continue until the inflation hits 2% target. However, major central banks have been in a difficult position given the ongoing tariff threat between the US and China, as it poses a major threat to the asset markets and may disrupt the supply chain, thus weaken global economies and policies.

Rega...


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Australia adds 44k jobs in August as unemployment holds steady

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Summary

  • Australia unemployment rate in August was steady at 5.3%
  • Australia adds 44,000 net jobs during the month
  • Most of the gains came from full-time positions which increased 33,700
  • Jobs data for July was revised lower
  • Initial signs of wage growth keep markets excited, but economists believe that it will take a while before price pressures develop

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Increase in full-time positions rises strongly

The latest monthly employment report from Australia beat expectations as the unemployment rate held steady.

The increase came as more people joined the labor market in a mix that is likely to put wages subdued although it supports consumer spending.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Thursday showed that the Australian economy added 44,000 net jobs during August. This beat the expectation of a 15,000 increase.

Australia unemployment rate
Australia unemployment rate: 5.3%, August 2018 (Source: Tradingeconomics.com)

From the total jobs created, most of the jobs created were full-time jobs. F...


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How to Make Money from Arbitraging Trading Software

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As the title suggests, in this article we’re going to talk about arbitraging trading software. Aside from being a kick-ass new terminology, in this article, we’re going to break down for you what is arbitrage and share with you our favorite arbitrage trading bot. If this is your first time on our website, our team […]


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Fundamental Fun with Orbex: SNB Rate Decision

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The next major economic event on the schedule that could have a significant impact on the Swiss Franc is the expected monetary policy decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), scheduled for 9:30 CET (3:30 EST). If you are trading the franc or any of its pairs, this is an event to keep in mind.

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This data, in particular, gets special attention aside from the rate decision itself, because once a quarter, the SNB makes an in-depth policy statement, and that will be released along with the decision on the rates.

General considerations

The Swiss National Bank has a single mandate to maintain price stability of the Swiss franc, so prior inflation data is considered in the run-up to the decision for traders to get a general idea what to expect from the bank.

The official inflation target is “less than 2% per annum”, and to avoid deflation. The Swiss CPI has remained well within those targets for several months, rising from 0.2% in June 2017 to the last reading of 1.2%.

Like all r...


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Orbex Market Flash

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Japanese trade data was weaker than expected once again over August, remaining in the red for a second consecutive month. The headline trade balance figure was -445 bln JPY, showing a stark increase from July’s -232 bln JPY. The seasonally adjusted number was also weak at – 190bln JPY, far worse than the expected -144 bln JPY figure the market was looking for.

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While the top sheet data made for bad reading, the breakdown does highlight some positives with exports having accelerated over the month rising 6.6% from July’s 3.9%. This increase was primarily driven by a rise in microchip-making machinery and autos. Notably, export volumes rose 1.1%, up from 0.9% in July suggesting that, so far, the US / China trade war hasn’t affected export demand. Imports were also substantial, rising 15.4% over August, up from 14.6% in July driven by strength in oil prices.

Interesting to note also is that exports to the US rose 5.3% in August, marking their first increase in three months on the back of ...


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NAFTA Deadline Approaching

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The market is now entering a crucial phase regarding NAFTA negotiations as the October 1st deadline, imposed by the US, moves ever closer. Indeed, US negotiators are piling on further pressure by saying that Thursday 20th September is the last chance for Canada to agree to the preliminary deal agreed upon by Mexico and the US. The timing is to allow for a deal to officially be approved by the incumbent Mexican administration before power shifts hand on December 1st. A 60 day consultation period is required by US laws referring to the time between presenting a treaty to Congress and the signing of a treaty.  If the deal is to be approved by the new Mexican administration is not so clear that it would sign such a deal, putting NAFTA in jeopardy once again.

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Trudeau Sticks To His Guns

However, up to this point, Canadian PM Trudeau has, to the frustration of the US, been fiercely stubborn about securing his demands sticking to his mantra that no deal is better than a bad deal. Once such re...


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“Trading with the Stochastic” Webinar

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Get ready for the “Trading with the Stochastic” webinar!

In this session, James will discuss the stochastic indicator which is one of the most popular Forex tools. During the session, you will learn what the indicator is as well as how to trade the oscillator, from basic methods through to advanced methods including how to combine the stochastic with other technical elements to identify trading opportunities. This session is perfect for traders of all skill levels including beginners new to technical trading.

Why should you attend?

  • Explore the stochastic oscillator using technical analysis
  • Avoid fumbles with an esteemed technical analyst and join the Orbex trading community
  • Experience live technical analysis and develop your knowledge of current market patterns and price action
  • And so much more!

Register now to attend our webinar.  “Trading with the Stochastic” webinar is coming!

Attendance for this webinar is free, but registration is required!

 

 

The post “Trading...


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Seven insights I wish I had when I started my trading career

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“Financial Markets.” What comes first to your mind when you hear this word? Something like ‘Gambling,’ ‘Speculation,’ ‘Everybody loses money,’ ‘Trap,’ right?

You might have heard something like this from your family or friends, but this may not be true. There are a lot of people there to whom trading is their bread and butter, and if the above statement is true, they might not have managed to be a trader throughout their life.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

Today I am going to discuss seven trading insights based upon my trading experience in the market which might guide you when you start with your trading career.

1. Do not listen to other people’s ideas especially when they are smarter than you.

You might meet hundreds of people in the market who give you calls or ideas and another hundred people who follow them. It is always better and smarter to stay away from such people or even if you are following them, try not to blindly copy them and ...


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How to Read Crypto Charts – Beginner’s Guide

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How to Read Crypto Charts – Beginner’s Guide Developing the right skills on how to read crypto charts is an art. This new skill will help you not just to track the price of your favorite coin, but the crypto candlestick charts will actually tell you a lot about the trend of the market as […]


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FTSE – Correction should provide fresh opportunity to sell

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Technical

FTSE – Correction should provide fresh opportunity to sell

Weekly: A sequence of weekly lower lows and highs has been posted. Levels close to the 61.8% pullback level of 7219 found buyers. A higher correction is expected. We have a 38.2% Fibonacci pullback level of 7480 from 7904 to 7219. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.

Daily:  The medium-term bias remains bearish. Although we remain bearish overall, a correction is possible without impacting the trend lower. We look for a retest of the break out level to initiate selling. News events could adversely affect the short-term technical picture. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.

Intraday: Broken out of the wedge formation to the upside. Bullish divergence can be seen on the 4-hour chart (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. Our expectation now is for this swing higher to continue towards the top of ...


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Yuan to benefit from Premier Xi comments, UK CPI in focus

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Global markets are attempting to power higher today as investors mostly brush away the latest escalation in tit-for-tat tariffs between the world’s two largest economies. The Yuan is also benefiting after Premier Xi Jinping confirmed that Chinese authorities will not purposely devalue the Yuan in response to trade tensions. The reassuring comments from the Chinese Premier will go a long way towards reassuring investor confidence in China. Not only will it help stabilize the Yuan, but it can also play a factor in helping currencies across the region, when factoring in how important China... Read More


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Intraday Technical Analysis 19 September

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 19/09/2018

The U.S. dollar was seen trading down on Tuesday. Fresh news about the U.S. slapping China with higher tariffs was met by China responding in the same. The markets were however to the reports.

Economic data on the day was sparse.

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In New Zealand, the current account data showed that the deficit increased to 3.3% of the GDP for the quarter ending June. The deficit was higher than expected.

The Bank of Japan held the monetary policy meeting earlier today. As widely expected, the central bank left the interest rate and QE unchanged at today’s meeting. The markets are currently awaiting the BoJ Governor Kuroda to speak during the press conference.

The European trading session starts off with the inflation report from the UK. Economists forecast inflation to rise 2.4% on the year in August. This marks a slight deceleration from the 2.5% increase seen the month before. Core CPI is expected to also ease to 1.8% in August from 1.9% previously.

The N...


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