Asian stocks climb as US banks’ earnings boost equities

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Most Asian stocks are following their US counterparts higher, after strong earnings reports out of US banks gave equities another reason to climb higher, after the risk-on momentum from the US-China trade truce faded. Gains in riskier assets are coming at the expense of safe havens, with Gold now trading below $1485, 10-year US Treasury yields surging past 1.77 percent before easing, while USDJPY touched the 108.86, its strongest level since the start of August.Even with the gains in equities, some measure of caution is still warranted, as investors cannot rule out a sudden spike in US-... Read More


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Gold & Oil Slide!

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In today’s market insights Stavros talks about the impact Brexit, earnings reports and IMF’s report have had on both the gold and oil markets! With US-China on a stalemate, he analyses the yellow metal and black gold in an attempt to decipher the ever-changing market sentiment!

The post Gold & Oil Slide! appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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IMF Issues Another Grim Warning on Growth

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technical analysis

The International Monetary Fund issued another grim warning for global growth.

It said that the US-China trade war would cut 2019 global growth to the lowest levels since 2008 – 2009. The IMF stated that the global outlook could darken even further if the trade tensions are not resolved.

The report comes after the US and China resumed trade talks this week. But the initial euphoria faded after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned that the US will go ahead with the tariffs it postponed if talks fall through.

German Economic Confidence Weakens Modestly

The investor confidence in Germany weakened slightly in October. The ZEW’s assessment of current economic situation fell to the lowest level since 2010. The ZEW index fell to -22.8 in October from -22.5 a month ago.

The data was, however, slightly better than the forecasts of a decline to -27. Meanwhile, the ZEW economic sentiment also weakened to -23.5 from -22.4. That being said, it still came in better than was forecast.

Will ...


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US September Retail Sales to Ease

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September Retail Sales

The monthly US retail sales report is due to come out today.

Data from the Commerce Department is forecast to show that retail sales will rise by 0.3% on both the headline and the core.

In August, headline retail sales rose 0.4% while core retail sales were unchanged. Headline retail sales eased to 0.4% after rising 0.8% in July.

The gains in August were only moderate with most of the heavy lifting done by a jump in the auto sales sector. The report in August underlined the fact that consumers were more cautious. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, had remained flat and this was the first time since February this year.

U.S. Retail Sales
U.S. Retail Sales, August 2019

While retail sales declines were expected following the surprise jump in July, the trend seems to be turning further down south. This comes as the US and China trade wars intensifies, leading to declining exports. Amid the scenario, the onus falls on consumer spending to drive retail sales higher.

Furthermore, online sales continue to e...


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Pound steady as Brexit negotiators race to meet midnight deadline

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The Pound is gaining against the US Dollar, amid reports that Brexit negotiators are rushing to try and meet a midnight deadline to strike up a deal. GBPUSD climbed back above the psychological 1.26 level, as investors’ optimism surrounding the likelihood of a Brexit deal remains intact for now. Sterling is one of just three G10 currencies that are gaining against the Greenback at the time of writing, with the other two being the Japanese Yen and the Canadian Dollar.With the clock counting down until the EU leaders’ summit, which is scheduled to commence on Thursday, it remains to be seen... Read More


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Tomorrow is CPI Day: UK, CA & NZ

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CPI Day

Overnight and tomorrow we have a set of data releases that could directly affect the price movement of major currencies.

The NZ inflation data is especially interesting since it’s only published once per quarter. And investors are really keen to find out if the RBNZ’s moves have had any effect!

Later, the other two major banks that have not yet joined the race to the bottom might be swayed to change their outlook with new inflation data.

We could see a move of several dozens of pips following the release.

In chronological order, we have the following.

New Zealand

The consensus of expectations is for Third Quarter CPI to come in at 0.7%. This is compared to 0.6% in the prior quarter.

A result like this would be good news for the RBNZ since that would put the annualized rate at 1.5% compared to 1.7% in the prior reading. This is still far away from the target, but better than what the central bank has been projecting. Analysts broadly agree that it’s not enough to dete...


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US Warns Of Fresh Tariffs If Deal Not Signed

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Risk Assets

USD in Demand

The US dollar has been a little firmer over the European morning so far on Tuesday. Fluctuations in risk appetite around trade war and Brexit headlines continue to impact the safe-haven flows seen for USD.

Fed rate cut expectations are keeping the USD outlook subdued in the near term and this should build heading towards the October FOMC. USD index trades 98.20 last.

EUR Lower

EURUSD has been lower against USD today. The latest economic data from Germany (ZEW economic sentiment) came in better than expected. However, it remained in negative territory.

Recent data weakness in the eurozone has kept EUR pressured over recent months. EURUSD is trading 1.1016 last, back below the 1.1025 level.

GBP Buoyed by Brexit Deal Hopes

GBPUSD has been a little higher today as the market continues to display optimism ahead of the EU summit this week (starts on Thursday). UK and EU leaders have been locked in talks over the last week with sentiment mainly positive.

However, divisions over...


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GBP Rises On Brexit Deal Hopes

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GBP Rises

GBP has been trading higher today on continued hopes that the UK will be able to agree to a Brexit deal with the EU. Michael Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, told reporters on Tuesday morning that although “big gaps” remain between the two sides, a deal is “still possible this week”. Speaking in Luxembourg ahead of a meeting with EU leaders later today, Barnier struck an optimistic tone saying that although time-wise it is becoming “more difficult” to do a deal, it was “time to turn good intentions into text”.

Did you know that our average spread on the GBPUSD is below 1 pip? Check out our spreads on a demo account now!  

Meetings Intensifying

Barnier’s meeting with EU leaders today is the latest in a string of meetings recently which have seen discussions intensifying ahead of the EU summit which starts on Thursday.  On Monday, there were 12 hours worth of talks, highlighting the effort that leaders are putting into attempting to resolve the situation.

Irish PM Confident Over Deal

...


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Orbex: Arab Gulf and Middle East Tour

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Here’s to the completion of yet another widely successful series of seminars, presented by Orbex to our loyal traders!

The tour covered 5 countries and 6 cities over a span of 3 months. It kicked off from Muscat, Oman in July 2019 and concluded in Amman, Jordan in September 2019.

We had the pleasure to meet and greet around 500 of our clients and followers at a series of highly beneficial workshops.

The Head of Training and Research Department at Orbex, Fayez Alajmi presented these sessions, along with the Business Development Manager and Deputy Director of Orbex Middle East, Mohammad Al-Mariri, and Head of Investment Research, Stavros Tousios.

With lively discussions and an effortless flow of information, the sessions highlighted the basic steps of capital management. Furthermore, they introduced curious traders to a tried and refined trading strategy, and how to implement it in their day-to-day trading.

And for the first time in the region, Orbex awarded all attendees awarded with li...


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What You Need to Know About Repo Markets

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Repo Markets

The repo market might be one of those obscure things to forex traders. But, recently, the chaos in the repo market created ripples all over.

In fact, from a spot forex trader’s perspective, the impact of the repo markets was much less muted on the currencies.

One of the reasons the repo markets made news back in September was due to the similarities to what we saw before the 2008 global financial crisis. So, understandably, the news spooked investors briefly.

As a forex trader, it pays to understand what the repo market is all about and why you should, at the very least, have a basic understanding of what it is and how it works.

Join our responsible trading community - Open your Orbex account now! 

What is the Repo Market?

The repo market is a place where vast amounts of cash are exchanged for collateral. By some estimates, the amounts exchanged, primarily between large institutions for short-term financing, are close to $3 trillion.

Simply put, as an institution, if you are short on c...


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Tariffs Part of Deal!

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In today’s market insights Stavros talks about the progress in US-Sino trade talks! With optimism fading already the limited deal reached last Friday in now under threat! Is this going to affect Aussie? And what about Brexit? Why have the chances of an October deal fall short?

The post Tariffs Part of Deal! appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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Asian stocks, currencies mixed; post-trade truce bounce on thin ice

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Asian stocks and currencies are mixed, as the post-trade truce bounce is losing steam. Investors are now weighing up their next steps after news of the “very substantial” phase one deal, as touted by US President Donald Trump. According to media reports, China doesn’t yet share the same optimism over an imminent trade agreement, with potentially more trade talks slated for the end of October.The latest twist in the US-China trade conflict is yet another reminder to investors not to get caught up in the hype. Trying to bridge the conflicting interests between the world’s two largest... Read More


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Equities Slip as Trade Deal sours

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technical analysis

There were signs of disappointment as the US and China trade deal soured following comments from the Treasury secretary.

Steve Mnuchin said that, in case of a no-deal in the trade talks, the US will hike tariffs by mid-December.

However, he did mention that he expects that the two sides will manage to strike a deal.

The comments come after President Trump announced that a phase one deal was in place. China is expected to buy up to $50 billion worth of agricultural goods from the US.

Eurozone Industrial Production Rises 0.4%

Industrial production in the Eurozone rose by 0.4% on the month in August. The increase came after two months of declines.

The data for August offset the 0.4% decline from July. The data also beat estimates of a 0.3% increase. Industrial production fell across all sectors except intermediate and capital goods.

EURUSD Continues to Consolidate at 1.1030

The common currency consolidated near the price level of the 1.1030 region. There is scope for an upside towards th...


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September UK Jobs and German ZEW Survey

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German ZEW Survey

There is a substantial amount of market-moving data coming out of Europe tomorrow.

The most important is likely to be employment data from the UK. The rate of job seekers is likely to stay at the lowest since the ’70s.

Half an hour later, we have a big event for the continent, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey from Germany. Expectations are for this to slip even further into contraction.

The theme of the day is the potential for currency divergence, which helps us understand long term trends for the euro and pound.

Is the UK diverging from the eurozone, or is the concern over Brexit leading to economic (and therefore, currency) convergence? Let’s have a look.

Trading the news requires access to extensive market research - and that's what we do best. Open your Orbex account now.

Data and Expectations

There are several bits of UK data coming out at the same time. However, it’s usually the Claimant Count Change that moves the market.

The consensus of expectations is that...


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Risk Off Over Trade Deal Concerns

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Risk Assets

Dollar Down

The US dollar has been a little lower over the first European session of the week despite weakness in equities prices. We have a quiet US datasheet this week so flows are likely to remain linked to incoming headlines around the initial US/China trade deal agreed last week. USD index trades 98.15 last with price reversing from overnight highs.

EUR Higher on Weak USD

EURUSD has been firmer against USD today though price action remains muted and corrective at best. The release of the ECB meeting minutes last week cast doubt over any further action from the ECB in the near term, highlighting the level of division among ECB policymakers.  A quiet data calendar this week will keep the focus on Brexit and trade war headlines. EURUSD trades 1.1038 last, sitting back above the 1.1025 level for now.

GBP Lower on Brexit Uncertainty

GBPUSD has fallen back a little today as the EU has warned Boris Johnson to move “further and faster” if he wishes to secure a Brexit deal this week. The Q...


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Trump Praises “Phase One” of US-China Trade Deal

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US-China Trade Deal

Phase One

The global economy has been trending lower over recent months, sparking recessionary fears across the globe.

In light of this, the markets were treated to some relief as the first signs of a potential end to the US-China trade war emerged late last week.

Representatives from both sides were engaged in the thirteenth round of negotiations last week. On the back of these talks, President Trump announced that the two sides have agreed on a “tremendous”, initial trade deal.

Tariffs Cancelled

The official details of the deal have not yet been published. However, according to President Trump, the deal consists of a pledge from China to buy between $40 and $50 billion worth of US agricultural products.

The pledge also involves the Chinese working hard to protect US intellectual property and welcoming more foreign financial services.

In return, the US has promised to abstain from increasing 25% tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods to 30%, as was scheduled to happen on Tuesd...


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Finally a US-Sino Trade Deal?!

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In today’s market insights Stavros talks about optimistic deals! The US-Sino “limited” deal struck last Friday and a potential Brexit deal between the EU and UK. Both have affected equities and how the dollar performs against other FX currencies! Join him for technical clues on the spx500 and the usindex!

The post Finally a US-Sino Trade Deal?! appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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Trade war pause boosts risk assets

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Stocks rally on US-China  ‘Phase I’  deal US 10 Year – 3 Month Treasury yield spread moves into positive territory Earnings season unofficially kicks off this week Investors who were desperate for positive news finally got some at the end of last week. After an ongoing US-China trade war that has lasted 18 months and rattled financial markets, the White House administration announced on Friday that the two sides had agreed on phase one of a trade deal. The EU is undergoing substantial negotiations with the Brits to resolve the Brexit dilemma, which saw Sterling... Read More


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US-China Trade Headlines Bring Optimism to the Markets

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technical analysis

The trade talks between the United States and China produced some positive headlines. This brought back optimism into the markets which have been flip-flopping in response to the developments.

President Donald Trump confirmed that there is a trade deal with China on Friday.

He stated that the deal will come in phases. Trump also said that the US was postponing the tariff increase due to come into effect next week.

Germany’s Final Inflation Unchanged

The final inflation report for Germany for September confirmed that consumer prices were unchanged on the month. This was consistent with the flash estimates from a few weeks ago. The stale inflation growth comes as the ECB restarted its QE program in September.

EURUSD Clears Resistance, More Upside Ahead?

The currency pair managed to clear the 1.1030 level of resistance. Price action eased back but prices were promptly rejected. The gains, if maintained could see the common currency attempting to test the 1.1091 level. This marks the prev...


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Weekly Market Outlook: China GDP & UK data

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weekly market outlook

The mid-month week ahead is expected to remain mostly quiet. Being that it isn’t one of the exciting weeks in terms of data, focus shifts to China’s GDP figures that are due to be released on Friday. The data will provide further insights into the world’s second-largest economy.

Forecasts already point to a modest decline in the GDP to 6.1% from 6.2% previously. Meanwhile, a host of other data includes retail sales and industrial production.

In the US and European markets, the economic data for the week ahead will focus on retail sales, inflation reports from the UK among other things. It is a short week, however, with the US, Japan and Canadian markets closed for business.

Here’s a quick preview into the economic calendar for the week ahead.

Slow Week for the US Dollar

From the economic data perspective, not much is happening for the US dollar. The economic docket will see the retail sales report standing out.

This week is also a short one, as the US markets are opening on Tuesday, fo...


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US-China trade truce spurs risk appetite; cautious optimism still warranted

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Asian stocks and currencies are gaining as risk-on sentiment courses through the markets following the US-China trade truce that was reached prior to the weekend. The increased risk appetite has dampened safe haven assets: Gold has shed about 1 percent to fall below $1490 since the trade truce was announced, the Japanese Yen is now trading above 108 against the US Dollar, while yields on 10-year US Treasuries have breached 1.70 percent for the first time since October 1. Japanese and US markets will be closed today for a holiday.Investors are drawing relief from the US-China trade truce... Read More


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Pound soars as UK, EU on verge of entering detailed Brexit talks

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The Pound has breached the 1.26 level against the US Dollar for the first time since early-July, and is set for its best two days since 2009. GBPUSD extended Thursday’s gains on hopes that a Brexit deal is becoming increasingly likely.According the media reports, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has indicated that both the UK and EU can now discuss the legal draft of the Brexit deal, although an official decision may only be made early next week. This is being interpreted as a positive development by the markets, as it moves the UK further away from a no-deal Brexit, while... Read More


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What is “Naked Trading”?

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Have you ever wondered what naked trading is?

If you don’t know how beneficial it can be to your trading journey you NEED to LISTEN to this podcast!

Indicators are very subjective! Trading without them isn’t only going to save you from lagging signals but it’s also going to help you understand market psychology!

Join us as we take through indicator-less strategies and indicator-based risk management!

You can listen to the podcast on mobile or desktop or download it on your device.

Follow our bi-weekly podcast and listen to our in-depth analysis on topics such as forex trading tips and fundamental/technical analysis!

Speakers:

Stavros Tousios
James Harte

The post What is “Naked Trading”? appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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Trade Deal Hopes Boost Risk Sentiment

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Risk Assets

Flat CPI Weighs on USD

The US dollar has been a little lower over the final European morning of the week. US CPI data released yesterday saw a 0% change month on month at 1.7% on the headline reading.

This, on the back of a dovish set of FOMC minutes, is boosting expectations of an October rate cut. USD index trades 98.28 last, testing the 98.30 support.

EUR Higher on Weak USD

EURUSD has been firmer against USD today in the wake of the continued selloff in the greenback. EUR has been supported over the second half of the week by the release of the ECB meeting minutes which highlighted the extent of the division within the ECB.

This has put the prospect of further ECB easing in doubt. EURUSD trades 1.1017 last, testing the 1.1025 level once again.

GBP Rises on Brexit Deal Hopes

GBPUSD has been firmly higher this morning. Weakness in USD, as well as increased optimism over the prospect of a Brexit deal, is helping boost GBP.

Positive commentary on the back of the meeting between Johnson...


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Gold Ends Lower on Trade Deal Optimism

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Gold

Precious metals have had a very changeable week as a combination of factors have driven flows in both directions. Ultimately, price was contained within the ongoing 1481.93 – 1522.75 range which has framed price action over the last five to six weeks.

The FOMC minutes helped underpin gold as, despite the division among policymakers, the fed cited a concerned outlook for the US economy. While some members voted against a rate cut, others were in favour of a larger rate cut. With many in the fed noting that recessionary risks in the US have increased notably over recent months.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains subdued given the downturn in global growth and ongoing trade tensions with China. The market is pricing in one further rate cut this year most likely in December. Though the prospect of an October rate cut is now receiving greater attention. USD was down heavily in response to the minutes release which helped buoy gold prices.

News of the US army withdrawing from the Turki...


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Making Sense of Market Cycles And Technical Analysis

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Technical Analysis

Everything is cyclical.

This isn’t a new observation – if we go back to ancient Greek philosophy, there was a consensus that the circle was the expression of perfection precisely because everything cycles.

Financial markets, as a reflection of the changes in how people value things, are cyclical as well.

Some asset classes are more likely to fall into cyclical patterns than others. Commodities and Forex especially are prone to cycle up and down, which makes understanding market cycles and knowing how to identify them, an essential aspect of long term forex trading profitability.

We measure some cycles in decades, while others are short enough to affect day trading.

But, they all follow a pattern and are one of the basic aspects of the forex markets upon which technical analysis is built. After all, predicting the future is about identifying patterns and projecting them forward.

So, what do we need to know about cycles?

Breaking Down the Wheel

We can identify market cycles,...


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Canada Unemployment Rate to Hold Steady in September

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canada unemployment rate

Statistics Canada will be releasing the high impact jobs report for September.

Economists are forecasting that Canada’s unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.7% in September. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in July from 5.5%. Since then, the unemployment rate has been steady at 5.7%.

On the employment change, economists are forecasting 40.2k jobs for September.

This is around half of the number of jobs created in August. The report for August saw a rather big print that beat estimates.

Therefore, it is not surprising to see that the number of jobs would moderate. It is unlikely though that the employment change will rise higher than the headline print from August.

Canada Employment Change
Canada Employment Change, August 2019

For the full year of 2019, Canada has added 304,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Current estimates point to a possibility of this number rising even further. Since mid-2016, Canada created about 1.06 million jobs.

But despite the increase, during the same period, the equipmen...


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Surprising Shifts in Deals!

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In today’s market insights, Stavros talks about the positive sentiment coming from US-Sino and Brexit headlines!

Watch him talk about Trump’s openness to a partial deal as well as Varadkar’s optimism!

Join him in analyzing the pound and loonie ahead of this month’s employment data in Canada.

The post Surprising Shifts in Deals! appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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Risk Appetite Returns as Trump to Meet Chinese Vice-Premier

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technical analysis

Equity markets managed to rebound on news that President Trump will be meeting with Vice-Premier Liu He.

The news comes as the US and China trade talks resume. However, over the past few days, risk appetite was volatile. Equities flip-flopped on new reports of the trade talks.

US Inflation Stays Flat in September

The monthly inflation report from the United States showed that consumer prices rose less than forecast. On a month over month basis, headline CPI was unchanged.

This missed estimates of a 0.1% increase. Core inflation rate rose 0.1%, falling short of the 0.2% increase. The US dollar weakened on the news. Headline inflation slipped to 1.7% on the year following the latest release.

EURUSD Jumps on the Back of a Weaker USD

The euro maintained the bullish momentum. The currency pair rose to a three-week high, briefly testing 1.1091. The gains come as the EURUSD has been trading below this resistance level over the past few weeks. Further momentum to the upside could see the comm...


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