November US Retail Sales

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November US Retail Sales

The big American data for the day is scheduled for 08:30 EST (14:30 CET) when the Census Bureau releases November retail sales data. The data can move the market including forex, and given that it is one of the last major releases before the extended holidays when most traders will be away from their desks, it could be especially relevant.

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Why the Data Matters

Retail sales are a monthly survey of how much retail outlets have sold in the prior month. The data closely resembles total consumer spending, and as consumers constitute the bulk of the US economy, it’s seen as a gauge of overall economic health.

In general, better retail sales are understood to support the dollar. They shows strength in the economy, despite increasing sales seen as supporting inflation.

Retail sales also impact the stock markets. Lower retail ...


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Ventas minoristas de EE.UU. para noviembre

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November US Retail Sales

El principal dato de EE.UU. para hoy está programado para las 07:30 hora de México (14:30 hora de Madrid) cuando se dan a conocer los datos de ventas de minoristas para el mes de noviembre. Estos datos pueden mover al mercado, incluyendo a las divisas, y dado que es uno de los últimos datos principales a divulgarse antes de las vacaciones de fin de año, puede ser de especial relevancia.

La importancia del dato

Este dato se basa en una encuesta mensual de los minoristas para saber cuánto han vendido el mes anterior, y es bastante similar al total de gasto de consumo, lo que es relevante para la economía considerando que el consumo es el principal componente de la economía estadounidense. En general, un aumento de las ventas minoristas se entiende que fortalece al dólar, al mostrar fortaleza de la economía, a pesar del potencial para mayor inflación.

Otra consecuencia del datos es el efecto sobre la bolsa; una reducción en las ventas minoristas podría tener un efecto sobre los negocios ...


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Weekly Metals Wrap

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metals

Gold

After breaking out above the 1235 resistance level last week which has capped price over the past six months, gold prices retreated lower this week as the US Dollar pushed back up toward recent highs. US Dollar has come back into favor ahead of the December FOMC meeting next week which is widely expected to see the Fed raise rates for the fourth time this year. USD was also bolstered this week by dovish comments from ECB president Draghi who acknowledged that risks to the Eurozone are starting to tilt to the downside. Gold prices had been gaining recently due to ongoing geopolitical risks from Brexit and trade wars.  However, even with US equities plunging to fresh 2018 lows, gold’s safe-haven status was unable to keep it supported.

forex gold

Despite the sell-off this week, gold prices are still sitting above the key 1235.30 level which is currently holding as support. While above here, focus is on further upside with the retest of the broken bullish trend line from 2015 lows, the next key...


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Orbex Market Flash

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ecb

Despite the swirling downside risks, the ECB announced an end to its large Quantitative Easing program at its December rates meeting yesterday. The programme, which has been in place since January 2015, has seen the bank pumping roughly 2.5 trillion Euros into the Eurozone.

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Weak Momentum Acknowledged

Alongside the announcement, the statement was relatively unchanged from last time around. The ECB continues to see rates staying on hold until at least after summer 2019, and although it acknowledges weakened momentum in the economy, the governing council maintains that the “underlying strength of demand” means “the convergence of inflation to our aim will proceed.”

While the tone of the statement was broadly positive, Draghi did note in comments following the decision that risks to the eurozone economy are starting to tilt to the downside. This view was clearly reflected in the downgraded outlooks for both g...


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5 Eye-Popping Market Movements of 2018

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5 Eye-Popping Market Movements

By the end of 2017, both escalating stock prices and growth in the digital currency market cap made the headlines. The global economic growth rate indicated a steady rise and the emerging market currencies recorded their highest gains in eight years, on account of a weaker US Dollar. Brexit was on everyone’s minds, as were the elections in countries like the US, Russia, Brazil, and Mexico.

Now, as 2018 draws to a close, it is time once again to look back and see how the global markets fared this year. It was a year full of surprises. Here are five major market movements that had far-reaching repercussions in 2018.

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1. US Dollar Weakness Led to Robust Growth for Multiple Sectors

Although the US economic momentum remained strong, a tighter economic policy by the Fed led to a weaker US Dollar, which benefitted many industries. The FTSE All-Share index fell 1.9% in January 2018, on account of the rising Pound Sterling against the Dollar. The Japanese yen strengthened against the USD too. O...


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Risk appetite fades on trade jitters; China back in focus

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A wave of risk aversion swept across Asian markets this morning as renewed jitters over the progress of trade talks and disappointing economic data from China knocked investor confidence. Stocks in Asia closed broadly lower amid the risk-off vibe with the negative mood infecting European markets as of writing. The sharp change of attitude towards global equities clearly highlights how global trade developments are heavily influencing market sentiment and risk appetite. With investors seen maintaining a cautious stance for the rest of the trading day, Wall Street may end up opening in the... Read More


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EURGBP Wave Analysis vs. ECB & Brexit Sentiment

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In this episode, Richard is synchronizing the current Brexit talks and ECB monetary policy sentiment with his wave counts on the EURGBP.

The post EURGBP Wave Analysis vs. ECB & Brexit Sentiment appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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Intraday Technical Analysis 14 December

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technical analysis

The Swiss National Bank held its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The Central Bank kept its LIBOR rate unchanged at -0.75% as widely expected. The Central Bank, however, lowered its inflation outlook.

The ECB was the next central bank to hold its monetary policy meeting. The Central Bank announced that it was ending its QE program but gave a cautious outlook on the economy and inflation prospects. The Euro did not react much to the news.

The NY trading session saw the U.S. import prices falling by 1.6% which was more than the forecast of a decline of 1.0%.

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The Tankan manufacturing index was at 19, unchanged from the previous quarter. Economists polled expected manufacturing to fall to 18. The non-manufacturing index rose to 24 from 22 during the last quarter, and the data beat the estimates of a decline to 21.

The European trading session will see the release of the flash manufacturing and services PMI for December. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise slight...


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AUDJPY – Corrective formation to the downside

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Monthly: Holding within an Expanding Wedge formation than has a bias to eventual break to the upside. Bespoke resistance is seen at 85.15

Weekly:  Holding within a bearish corrective channel formation after completing a bullish 5-wave count (Elliott Wave). Levels close to the 61.8% pullback of 79.27 (from 72.45-90.30) have found buyers. Trend line resistance is located at 83.75, support at 7605, close to the 78.6% pullback level of 76.28

Daily: The cross overextended to the 423.6% level of 83.66, common in commodity-based crosses. We are now deemed to be with the corrective leg lower.

Intraday (8-hours) – Looks to be forming a bearish Head and Shoulder pattern. This could also be seen as an AB=CD corrective sequence. There is cope for mild buying at the open, but gains should be limited. Bespoke resistance is seen close to 81.90

The post AUDJPY – Corrective formation to the downside appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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Canada’s unemployment rate falls to the lowest level in November 2018

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canada unemployment rate

Summary

  • Economy adds 89,900 in November beating forecasts by a substantial margin
  • Unemployment rate falls to the lowest level since the record-keeping began in the 70s
  • Wage growth fell for the sixth consecutive month despite the solid data
  • Job gains were driven by full-time jobs in the private sector
  • BoC still unlikely to move with a rate hike in January 2019

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The latest labor market data from Canada showed a solid reading in the labor market, marking one of the best reports on the labor data since record keeping began.

Data released on Friday by Statistics Canada showed that the economy added a record number of jobs while the unemployment rate fell to the lowest levels. The data underlined the fact that it could ease the Bank of Canada’s concerns on a slowdown in the economy.

Official data showed that the Canadian economy reported a net gain of 94,100 jobs during November. The gains c...


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Orbex Market Flash

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Oil Weakness

Despite expectations of a weaker figure due to the dramatic slump in oil prices over the last two months, US CPI remained broadly unchanged over last month.

The headline CPI reading for November, reflected the weakness in energy markets, registering a decline from the prior month’s 2.5% reading. However, core CPI was actually higher over the month, printing 2.2%, up from 2.1% prior.

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fomc

While inflation is managing to hold steady for now, the outlook isn’t great as expectations of slower growth both at home and abroad are clouding the horizon. US producer prices data for November, also released this week, rose just 0.1% on the month, down sharply from the prior month’s 0.6%, while the Fed’s main inflation gauge, the PCE index, rose just 1.8%, marking its smallest monthly increase since February.

While news of the planned production cut among OPEC and...


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December SNB Rate Decision & Policy Statement

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December SNB Rate Decision

Coming up, we have the monetary policy decision of the Swiss National Bank scheduled for 09:30 CET (3:30 EST). What traders are going to be scrutinizing is the quarterly monetary policy statement.

The latter is especially relevant since it gives some insight into where the SNB thinks the economy is going in the long term, something that investors are likely to be mulling over as the central bank largely goes silent over the year-end holidays.

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The consensus is that the Bank will keep the interest rate steady at -0.75%, so market moves will likely come from the policy report. Here are some things you might want to keep in mind if you are trading any CHF pairs.

General considerations

The SNB has a single mandate to keep prices stable, officially targeting an inflation rate of “less than 2%” annual, and no deflation. Realistically, the SNB has been struggling for a long time to get inflation up to ...


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Decisión de SNB sobre tasas de diciembre

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December SNB Rate Decision

Se aproxima el anuncio de la decisión de política monetaria del Banco Nacional Suizo, agendado para las 09:30 hora de Madrid (02:30 hora de México), pero lo que se llevará la atención de los traders será el informe de política monetaria semestral. Este es especialmente relevante por dar indicios sobre hacia dónde el SNB piensa que va al economía en el largo plazo, algo a considerar mientras el banco central entra en un período de relativo silencio por los feriados de fin de año.

El consenso es que el banco mantendrá tasa en -0,75%, así que el mercado estará pendiente de eventuales cambios de perspectiva en el informe. Aquí hay algunas cosas a tener presente si está operando en los pares CHF.

Consideraciones generales

El SNB tiene un mandato único de mantener la estabilidad de precios, con un objetivo oficial de una tasa inflacionaria de menos de 2% anual, y sin deflación. En realidad, sin embargo, el SNB ha tenido serias dificultades en subir la inflación a ese rango por mucho tiempo,...


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Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report

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crude oil

Crude oil prices this week turned lower once again despite the latest data from the Energy Information Administration, released yesterday, showing that US crude stocks experienced a less than expected drawdown.

In the week ending December 7th,  crude oil inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels, much less than the forecast 10.18 million barrels. This just the second weekly drawdown of the last ten weeks and while it is certainly a move in the right direction, it is far less than the 10.18 million barrels that crude bulls were hoping for.

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Opposing Market Forces

The stagnant price action in crude this week reflects the opposing market forces which traders are currently battling. On the one hand, prices have been buoyed by news of a successful OPEC meeting last week, resulting in the announcement of a 1 million + barrels per day reduction in crude production to start in January.

On the other, traders are still dealing wit...


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Risk sentiment buoyed by US-China trade optimism; ECB meeting in focus

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A renewed sense of positivity is sweeping across financial markets this morning amid signs of easing trade tensions between the United States and China. Encouraging reports of China placing it first major order of U.S. soybeans in more than six months is a symbolic move seen elevating global sentiment and boosting appetite for riskier assets. The trade optimism was clearly reflected in Asia this morning with stocks closing broadly higher, following the positive lead from Wall Street overnight. European markets are seen benefiting from the risk-on vibe, with the bullish momentum trickling... Read More


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EURNZD – 5-wave completion to the downside

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Monthly: Mixed trading for the last 9 months has resulted in a large symmetrical triangle being posted on the monthly chart. Price action in October posted a bearish Outside Month which offers a medium-term negative outlook. The Marabuzo level (mid-point from open and close) from November is located at 1.6902

Weekly:  Broken the channel formation to the downside. Reverse trend line resistance is seen at 1.7416. There is scope for a bearish Head and Shoulders to form with a right shoulder located close to 1.7255

Daily: Levels close to the 261.8% extension of 1.6429 (from 1.7929-1.7355) have found buyers. This could be seen as the completion of the first (dis-jointed) bearish 5-wave pattern (Elliott Wave). Yesterday’s price action posted a bullish Outside Day, positive for short-term sentiment

Intraday (8-hours) – Mixed and volatile trading looks to have formed a reverse Head and Shoulders. A break of 1.6622 and the measured move target is 1.6952 (close to the monthly Marabuzo level a...


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Intraday Technical Analysis 13 December

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technical analysis

Brexit hogged the limelight on Wednesday as British PM May faced a vote of no-confidence. Although there was a surprise in the decision, this was widely speculated. The sterling initially slipped on the news only to recover strongly later towards the evening.

The outcome of the no-confidence vote was that the PM May managed to hold her ground with 200 votes in her favor and 117 against her. However, uncertainties remain on the final Brexit deal which is yet to be approved by the UK parliament.

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Industrial production in the Eurozone rose 0.2% matching estimates. This followed a revised 0.6% decline from the month before. The U.S. headline inflation was flat for November, as per estimates. This followed a 0.3% increase the month back. The core inflation rate was also up 0.2% as per estimates, and the increase was the same pace as seen in the previous month.

Investors look to a busy day in the markets amid a line up of central bank meetings. The day starts with the final inflation figures...


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AUD round up: RBA leaves monetary policy unchanged

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aud rba

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday last week. As widely expected, the Central Bank maintained its interest rates unchanged at 1.50%.

The interest rate decision marks an uninterrupted view on monetary policy for the past two years and three months. In its monetary policy statement, the RBA said that “The improvement in the economy should see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is still expected to be a gradual process.”

The Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged comes as inflation has been hovering near 1.9% over the past year. Consumer prices are still lower than the inflation target band of 2% – 3% which the RBA is targeting. The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation was seen lower at 1.75%.

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The RBA Governor, however, expressed optimism. He said that there were positive signs that the Australian economy was picking ...


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Best Candlestick PDF Guide – Banker’s Favorite Fx Pattern

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Best Candlestick PDF Guide – Banker’s Favorite Fx Pattern The best candlestick PDF guide will teach you how to read a candlestick chart and what each candle is telling you. Candlestick trading is the most common and the easiest form of trading to understand. The candlestick patterns strategy outlined in this guide will reveal to […]


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How the French Protests are Helping the Italians

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how french help italians

With all the latest headlines focusing on the tribulations of Brexit and the protests in France, Italy has sort of fallen off the radar. But that doesn’t mean things aren’t happening. In fact, what is going on could have a few financial implications. 

Later today, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker (not to be confused with the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk), fresh off of telling Theresa May there is nothing more to negotiate, will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to discuss the budget.

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Nothing terribly shocking is expected to come of it, but it’s a good opportunity to check in on the Italians and their neverending budgetary problems, and see how the situation in France – or at least, Macron’s concessions to the protestors – is actually helping to bolster their position.

Converging on a number 

Initially, Italy proposed a b...


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What are the Rules of Day Trading?

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day trading

A forex day trader’s objective is to take advantage of the random price movements of a liquid currency pair before the market closes for the day. The more volatile the market is, the more opportunities arise for day traders, regardless of the direction in which the market moves in the longer term.

A shorter time horizon means that day traders look at the markets with a different perspective than long-term traders. Call them strategies or rules, here are some of the methods usually followed by day traders to stay in the race.

DemoAccount

1.     Start with a Demo Account

A demo account or a virtual trading account is provided by most retail brokers these days. With some virtual money, which traders don’t spend from their pockets, they get to test their trading skills and familiarise themselves with the markets in a simulated environment. They get to understand the workings of different technical indicators on their platform and learn how to execute orders, like stop-loss, take profit and limit ord...


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Cómo las protestas en Francia podrían ayudar a Italia

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Con la prensa mayoritariamente enfocada en la problemática del Brexit, y cuando no, en las protestas en Francia, Italia ha perdido cierto protagonismo. Pero eso no quiere decir que están en punto neutro, y eso puede traer consecuencias financieras. Hoy el presidente de la Comisón Europea, Jean-Claude Juncker (a no confundirse con el presidente del Consejo Europeo, Donald Tusk), habiendo recién dicho que no hay más que negociar con el Reino Unido, se reunirá con el primer ministro italiano Giuseppe Conte para discutir el presupuesto.

No se espera grandes sorpresas, pero es una buena oportunidad para revisar qué es lo que está pasando con los problemas presupestarios italianos que parececieran no acabar, y ver cómo la situación en Francia (o por lo menos las concesiones de Macron hacia los manifestantes) podría estar ayudando a la postura Italiana.

Convergencia hacia un número

Inicialmente, Italia propuso un presupuesto que generaría un ratio de déficit a PIB de 2.4%. Desde entonces, y ...


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Orbex Market Flash

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forex brexit

While many might easily find cause to disagree with Theresa May politically, few can deny the caliber of her character. The embattled PM has fought over many long, arduous months and is now in the crucial stages of passing her Brexit deal.

However, just ahead of the “final meaningful vote” which was to be held in Parliament this week, the PM postponed the vote to embark on a last-ditch blitz around Brussels, meeting with European leader to seek “extra reassurances” on issues such as the Irish backstop. Reassurances will make the difference when it comes to returning the vote to parliament before the January 21st deadline.

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Vote Of No Confidence Presented Market

However, May’s painstaking campaign has now come under further attacks as news came through yesterday of a “vote of no confidence” being presented to the PM.

The lead...


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Trade Idea – FTSE100

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This week we are looking at the FTSE100 on the monthly, weekly and 4h charts.

Check out our weekly Trade Idea and tap into the market trend!

Go2_TradeIdeas

Disclaimer: This material is intended for marketing/information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing; an attempt of solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and does not constitute investment advice or research. Past performance is not a guarantee of or prediction of future performance. The Trade Ideas are provided independently by an external third party company, PIA First Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FRN 787261 to provide regulated products and services including Investment Advice. Registered in England & Wales, company number 07428345. Registered Office: Kemp House, 152 City Road, London EC1V 2NX. VAT number 153 646014. Copyright © 2018.

ORBEX does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation, Read...


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GBP Crashes To One Year Lows As May Pulls Brexit Vote

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theressa may brexit

Uncertainty around the future of Britain’s relationship with the EU has been clearly reflected in GBP price action this week, with Sterling cratering to levels not seen since April 2017.

The catalyst behind these fresh moves was the news of UK PM May aborting a “meaningful final vote” in Parliament on the day it was to take place due to fear that the motion would be defeated.

In a bid to establish more support in Parliament, May is to return to Brussels to seek “extra reassurance” on the issue of the Irish backstop to make absolutely certain that a “hard border” will be avoided.

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Parliament Vote To Be Held By January 21st

May has told the public that the postponed vote will be returned to Parliament before January 21st in order to keep the March 29th exit date intact. The PM’s official spokesman said:

“We will be keeping wi...


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Will trump be able to stop the Federal Reserve?

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The return of President Trump speaking out against monetary policy in the United States appears to have been enough to prevent the Dollar making a further milestone high for 2018, at least for now. President Trump has resumed his drive to prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates further, by stating that it would be “foolish” just one week before the central bank meets to discuss on possibility of raise US interest rates as widely expected in December. It is not that surprising that we have seen the return of rhetoric against Fed policy from Trump, but one of the major... Read More


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Intraday Technical Analysis 12 December

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technical analysis

Economic data on the day saw the UK’s average earnings increased  by 3.3% in the three months ending October. The data beat estimates of a 3.0% increase. Previous data was revised higher to show a 3.1% reading. The UK’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment was seen at -17.5, which was better than the expected -25.0 while the Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment was better at -21.0 compared to forecasts of -23.2.

Act_TradeIdeas

The U.S. producer price index data was seen rising 0.1% on the month compared to a low estimate. The pace of increase was slower than the 0.6% that was registered the month before. Core PPI was seen rising by 0.3% compared to 0.1% forecast.

Japan’s producer prices data which was released earlier in the day showed a 2.3% increase on the year. Economists polled expected a 2.4% increase on the PPI. The European session will see the industrial production numbers coming out. Industrial production is forecast to rise 0....


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Growth concerns continue to plague the Eurozone as ECB looks to end QE

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eurozone

This week, the European Central Bank will be holding its monetary policy meeting. The last meeting for this year, the Central Bank will be announcing an end to its QE program.

The crisis-era stimulus program which began in 2015 saw the European Central Bank purchasing massive amounts of sovereign and corporate bonds in a bid to revive the economy

Despite the announcement to end its QE program, the ECB maintains that interest rates will not change. The Eurozone interest rates are near or at zero, marking a historic low.

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The Central Bank faces uncertainty as far as the Eurozone economy is concerned. Growth is seen faltering, and inflation growth remains uncertain.

Eurozone manufacturing activity continues to remain weak

Last week, Markit’s PMI data for the manufacturing sector showed that business continued to ease. Manufacturing activity tumbled to 51.8 in November. This was the lowest reading in the index s...


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Yuan firms on renewed trade talk hopes; Gold wobbles

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A sense of stability returned to financial markets on Tuesday as investors swept aside geopolitical risk factors to focus on progress in trade talks between the two largest economies in the world. The overall market mood received a boost following reports of top US and Chinese officials discussing over the phone the “promotion of the next economic and trade consultations”. However, global sentiment later took a hit after Donald Trump threatened to shut the Federal government over border security. Although easing trade tensions are seen injecting equity bulls with fresh inspiration, the... Read More


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