Tesla Shares Rallying Ahead of Musk Speech

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Higher Pre-Market on Monday

Shares in the US alternative energy firm, Tesla, are trading almost 5% higher pre-market on Monday.

With traders gearing up for CEO Elon Musk’s speech on Tuesday, the outlook remains bullish.

Musk is due to speak as part of the firm’s “Battery Day.”

During the day, the firm will update investors on the advances within its work on energy storage. Stock watchers are anticipating that the speech will see Musk highlighting significant battery improvements.

Looking at the options market ahead of the event, traders are currently pricing in around a 17% move (two-way volatility) by the end of the week.

Recent Selling Seen

Tesla shares recently saw a heavy bout of selling, with the market plunging by over 30%.

This was both a response to a 5:1 stock split, as well as a reaction to news that the firm had been excluded from a group of companies joining the S&P500 index.

Expectations had been for Tesla to join the index after a year’s worth of consecutive qua...


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Scandinavia & Swiss Movers: Upcoming Interest Rate Decisions

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Scandinavia & Swiss Movers

Sweden sets off a very busy week in terms of central bank activity.

Following quadruple witching day on Friday, we ought to expect a rather volatile week of trading ahead of the quarter’s close.

This is especially true for the non-central currencies, which might come under extra strain.

Here’s what some of the central banks are up to.

Sweden to Stay the Course

The COVID outbreak has merely exaggerated a problem Sweden’s Riksbank was already dealing with unsuccessfully.

Like most currencies outside of, but intimately tied to, the euro, inflation has been chronically below target, with no expectation of it coming back into line.

Comparatively, the krona remains “too strong” for the likes of policy-makers. However, despite prolonged negative interest rates, that hasn’t changed.

Today, the Swedish government announces a special budget to deal with the effects of COVID.

The extra spending might finally raise some expectations for increased inflation. But...


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The Week Ahead: Who Will Opt for Negative Interest Rates?

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NZDJPY Awaits RBNZ catalyst

nzdjpy

The New Zealand dollar has slowed down its advance across the board as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled to meet on Wednesday.

The probability that the central bank embraces negative interest rates is higher than ever after data showed that the country has slipped into recession for the first time in over a decade.

Policymakers have already hinted at “a package of additional monetary instruments” at their August meeting.

Overnight volatility is likely to increase and drastic measures could push the price lower. 68.80 is a major support to monitor. On the upside, 73.00 is the immediate target should the pair bounce back.

USDCHF Steady Ahead of SNB Meeting

usdchf

The US dollar is struggling to hold onto the psychological price tag of 0.9 after four months of sell-off.

The Fed has stopped short of topping up its easing program and upgraded its 2020 economic forecast to a less gloomy one instead.

While this helped the greenback claw back some losses...


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Gloomy start to the trading week

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Stock markets are tumbling around the world today with the sharp rises in coronavirus cases signalling fears of new and extended local and national lockdowns. S&P 500 futures are marked down nearly 1.7% while European bourses have fallen over 3% on the day so far. This risk-off mood has given safe haven currencies a bid with the Yen and Dollar leading the G10 charts.The likely halt in US fiscal support until after the election in November is adding more fuel to the equity fire, but it is the slowing pace of recovery over the next several quarters in most major economies which is... Read More


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GBPJPY 5-Wave Impulse To End Correction

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The current GBPJPY formation suggests a cycle degree flat a-b-c.

Wave b has completed on a triple zigzag pattern. This pattern consisted of primary sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ.

Following wave b, we are now in the final cycle of wave c. We have ended the first 5-wave impulse in primary wave ① of c as well as wave ②. We now expect the emergence of primary sub-waves ③-④-⑤.

Hence, we should anticipate a decline in the support near 124.24. This is the previous low formed by the zigzag wave a.

An alternative scenario shows triple zigzag b has not yet been completed.

Bullish zigzag wave [Z] is in development and consists of intermediate sub-waves (A)-(B)-(C).

Bearish correction (B) has been completed, and we are now at the beginning of impulse (C).

The impulse could reach 142.80, or even higher. This level is the previous high that the impulse wave (A) formed.

Test your strategy on how the GBP will fare! Open your Orbex Account and start trading now. 

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S&P500 Could Test the Support Level Near 3200

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The S&P500 index closed rather flat following two consecutive weeks of declines after touching new all-time highs.

However, in the process, the trend line that we were closely watching broke, pushing prices lower.

On a daily basis, the index managed to make a modest rebound to test the 3388 level. However, failing to breakout higher, price action reversed, thus forming resistance.

As a result, we anticipate further declines. The index could continue its declines as it approaches the 3200 handle once again.

Establishing support near this level could possibly shift the bias to the upside. It would also mark a modest correction before resuming the uptrend.

However, in the near term, the declines to 3200 would mean that the S&P500 could remain within the 3388 and 3200 regions, forming a sideways range.

ConfidentToTrade

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Crude Oil Posts Weekly Gains

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wti

Oil prices managed to make an impressive recovery with price action recovering nearly half of the declines set off in the previous two weeks.

As a result, oil prices are now trading near the 41.00 level.

There is, however, a strong hidden divergence on the 4-hour chart which might suggest a possible correction.

To the downside, this would mean that oil prices could correct back to the 38.83 level to form support.

Such a move would validate the upside bias. Alternately, if the bullish momentum continues, then we expect oil prices to continue further to test the 42.00 level.

TradingOil

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GBPUSD Fails Near the Technical Resistance Once Again

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gbpusd

The British pound sterling managed to reverse the declines to retest the 1.3000 handle on Friday.

However, price action failed to breakout past this level and turned lower as a result.

This possibly marks a double top pattern that is emerging near the 1.3000 level.

If price continues to drift lower and breaks down past the recent swing low near 1.2879, then we expect a decline to the 1.2750 support.

Given that the previous decline failed to test this support area thoroughly, the double top pattern, if validated could trigger the retest of the support area.

Test your strategy on how the GBP will fare! Open your Orbex Account and start trading now. 

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Rising Covid-19 cases keep risk assets under pressure

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Equity markets kicked off Monday on the back foot following three weeks of consecutive declines in US stocks, which marked the longest weekly losing streak since 2019. Investors are becoming increasingly worried about the momentum in the economic recovery given the resurgent numbers of global Covid-19 cases and lack of progress on a new US stimulus package.Although President Trump signaled his readiness to back a bigger stimulus bill last week, the Supreme Court’s empty seat left by the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg is likely to complicate the matter. The fight between the President and... Read More


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Supreme Court battle presents another major risk for investors

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Asian stocks and US equity futures are mixed, as global investors have been dealt with a major twist just six weeks before the US Presidential elections.[[{"fid":"12262","view_mode":"default","fields":{"format":"default","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false},"type":"media","field_deltas":{"1":{"format":"default","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false}},"attributes":{"class":"media-element file-default","data-delta":"1"}}]]Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg... Read More


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Week in review: Cautious end to a busy week

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It has been a busy week defined by central bank meetings, coronavirus concerns, some good old Brexit drama and action in the FX space!After taking a real beating late last week, global stocks kicked off Monday with a renewed sense of confidence as optimism swirled around a Covid-19 vaccine. While the bursts of positivity here and there is all good for equity markets, the charts suggest that bulls may be running out of steam. Just take a look at the S&P 500 which is struggling to push back above 3400 after slipping from 2020’s highs earlier this month.[[{"fid":"12256","view_mode":"... Read More


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Webinar: Tre strategie facilmente replicabili

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In questo webinar, andiamo a vedere come diventare operativi con i giusti strumenti di analisi.

Cosa imparerai:

1) Cosa guardare nei Grafici

2) Tre strategie di facile attuazione

3) La gestione del rischio

In questo webinar andiamo a scoprire come operare con la probabilità di ottenere profitto. In particolare andremo a vedere cosa ci dice il grafico e le cose importanti da guardare.

Valutare l’entrata in posizione guardando i diversi time frame. Inoltre andremo a vedere tre strategie di facile esecuzione anche per un trader principiante. In aggiunta si farà un accenno all’importanza della gestione del rischio, alla quale spesso non si dà la giusta importanza.


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BoE Hints At Zero Interest Rates

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Muted QE Weighs in on the Greenback

A tough day on wall street ensued as another slide in the technology sector helped pull indices lower.

The ripple effects of the recent FOMC meeting were still filtering through as no further signs of fiscal stimulus were evident.

All three major indices fell over 1% in the worst trading session in a week.

The US Index was initially buoyed in the early session on Thursday as US jobless claims declined from the previous month.

However, this could not stop the index closing 0.29% lower as weak housing data dragged levels below the 93 handle.  

ECB Adds Another Round of Relief

The euro ended 0.28% higher yesterday but fell short of another attempt at the 1.19 area.

The ECB confirmed the easing of regulations for major eurozone banks which will free up as much as €73bn of capital. This is a further attempt to boost lending and prevent the pandemic from halting economic progression.

Brexit Divorce Does Not have to Turn Ugly

The pound ended the sessi...


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Gold Outlook Remains Bullish Following FOMC

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forex gold

Gold

The yellow metal has seen another rather subdued week of trading, with prices maintaining a quiet sideways range.

The main focus this week was on the FOMC on Wednesday. The Fed delivered a message of caution and concern, citing a great deal of uncertainty in the outlook.

This has capped the US dollar upside, for now, keeping gold prices supported.

The Fed went into detail regarding its new inflation targeting policy which has recently shifted away from targeting 2% inflation. It is now allowing inflation to run hotter, aiming to achieve an average of 2% inflation.

With this new shift, the Fed has essentially signaled to the market that it should no longer expect rates to be lifted as inflation hits 2%. It has also reassured traders that rates will be kept at current levels until 2023.

With this in mind, the outlook for gold remains bullish with plenty of scope for further upside in the medium term.

TradingGold

Gold Holding Above Trend Line Support

gold

Gold prices continue to test the bullish tr...


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Gold Prices Somewhat Weaker After Fed Meeting

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xauusd

The precious metal is on track to close in the red on Thursday. However, the pace of declines is limited following the initial reaction.

Gold prices closed with modest gains on Wednesday, only to reverse those gains on Thursday.

The bearish candlestick pattern could signal a continuation to the downside. However, with the price level near 1900 holding strong for the moment, gold prices might see some consolidation.

To the upside, the 1967 region is proving hard to break. As a result, the sideways range could continue in the near term.

But giving some weight to the upside is the Stochastics which is currently reversing off the oversold levels.

Watch for gold prices to break out above 1967 for any further gains to come.

Test your strategy on how gold will fare with Orbex - Open your account now. 

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WTI Crude Oil Back Near Familiar Resistance

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wti crude oil

Oil prices made up for the losses set off last week. After breaking past the 38.83 level which did not offer much resistance, price action pulled higher.

Late in the US trading session, oil prices briefly tested the 41.00 level before pulling back modestly.

But given the bullish momentum, a breakout above the 41.00 level is likely.

This will put the upside toward the 42.00 price level next.

The close above 38.83 also diminishes the downside bias in oil markets. That is unless we see a break down below 38.83 once again.

Test your strategy on how Oil prices will fare - Open Your Orbex Account Now

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GBPUSD Trades Mixed on BoE Meeting Outcome

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gbpusd

The British pound sterling is trading mixed, albeit price action is attempting to pull back from the intraday lows.

The declines were offset by the BoE meeting where officials hinted that they were open to negative rates.

This saw GBPUSD declining after failing to breakout above the 1.3000 handle.

However, as prices touched intraday lows of 1.2865, a strong reversal has made up some of the loses.

The Stochastics oscillator is likely to push higher as well, suggesting upside momentum building up.

Watch for a breakout above 1.3000 which will see further gains to 1.3122 level next.

Test your strategy on how the GBP will fare! Open your Orbex Account and start trading now. 

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EURUSD Finds Support off the Trend Line

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eurusd

The euro currency is paring losses following the Fed meeting.

Prices fell to a five-week low before recovering. This coincides with the trend line from which the common currency is reversing losses.

Further continuation to the upside could see the 1.1900 level being challenged once again.

With the trend turning flat above 1.1715, we expect this sideways pattern to hold.

A strong close above 1.1900 will be needed to confirm the upside.

This needs to be followed through with the breakout above 1.2000 for any further signs of the uptrend resuming.

Test your strategy on how the euro will fare with Orbex - Open your account now. 

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Quarterly Witching: Dark spell ahead?

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Asian stocks are edging higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index set to register its first weekly gain this month. However, the selloff in US stocks is set to stretch on, with futures contracts for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones indices falling into the red at the time of writing. Nasdaq 100 futures are fluctuating between gains and losses, suggesting that the index could yet deepen its ongoing technical correction. The sense of trepidation in the markets is also evident with the slight gains in safe haven assets, with Gold prices set to register a second consecutive week of gains.... Read More


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Bank of England pour fuel onto the GBP fire

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Although the BoE kept policy measures and rates unchanged at its meeting today, it said it had explored plans to take interest rates into negative territory if necessary. The bank’s main scenario is based on the UK signing a Brexit trade deal before the end of the year, so the market has reacted strongly in light of the negative recent headlines and increasing risk of a no-deal. At one point, the GBP was one of the weakest major currencies on the day, down nearly 0.7% while money markets have been given little choice but to price in negative rates in early 2021.Although it would seem that... Read More


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Alibaba Shares Correct Further From Recent Highs

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Alibaba Shares Lower on Thursday

Shares in Chinese E-commerce giant Alibaba are trading almost 2% lower pre-market on Thursday. Alibaba has had a broadly positive year with price breaking out to fresh all-time highs. However, as of writing, shares are trading a little off those recent highs.

The company announced this week that it is opening a pilot factory in Hangzhou, a city in Eastern China. The move is part of Alibaba’s “smart manufacturing” initiative. It reflects the continued expansion beyond Alibaba’s core E-commerce business and into other areas such as online retail supply.

In a statement issued to announce the new opening, the company said that the factory will be managed by an internal unit called Xunxi Digital Technology Company. The unit will mainly deal with clothing retailers.

“Smart Manufacturing”

“Smart manufacturing” is a term which Alibaba-watchers will be familiar with. In 2016, Alibaba founder Jack Ma outlined it as one of the key trends and business o...


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How to Use Friday’s CFTC Report for Forex Trading

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forex trading

Every week, the Commodities Future Trading Commission (CFTC) issues a Commitment of Traders (COT) report. Basically, it’s a summary of the positions held by large futures trading institutions.

It covers all assets, but forex traders are interested in the currencies section. All large traders (who move the market) are required to report their positions regularly.

Evidently, because the report only comes out once a week, it’s not so useful for day traders. But for longer-term traders, it can give some insight into where the market is heading.

Regularly following the report shows how much market makers hold in long and short positions of different currency pairs.

That helps draw a picture of where supply and demand are, and therefore where price action is likely to go.

The Components of the COT Report

The report itself is fairly complex. However, as a brief overview, we can divide it into different sections.

The ones relevant to traders are the Non-Commercial and Commercial he...


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USDCAD Zigzag Completion Eyes 1.3520

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usdcad elliott

The current USDCAD structure hints at a triple zigzag consisting of sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ.

Waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ are complete, whereas wave Ⓧ is under development.

Wave Ⓧ has a bullish zigzag structure and consists of intermediate sub-waves (A)-(B)-(C).

The development of the intermediate impulse (C) could extend prices up to 1.352.

At that level, primary wave Ⓧ will be at 50% of wave Ⓨ.

usdcad

An alternative scenario shows wave Ⓧ having a sideways structure. In this case, it will take the form of a contracting triangle (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) of the intermediate degree.

Zigzag wave (A) is already complete.

Currently, we see a decline in zigzag wave (B), which consists of waves A-B-C.

Minor impulse C could end near 1.306. At that level, wave (B) will be at 76.4% of wave (A).

In the short term, the price will move flat until the end of the intervening wave Ⓧ.

How do you feel the CAD will fare in the coming weeks? Open your Orbex account and trade now! 

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AUDCHF Looks for Yearly Highs

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AUDCHF has been trading in an ascending channel from the middle of June.

Since then, we have witnessed several attempts to break the upper line. The lower channel has also been tested as prices move away from the psychological 0.65 area.

Since the last attempt at the break of support, bulls have moved to the 0.67 region. The recent hidden bullish divergence on the momentum indicator has aided the move.

Prices now range between the 38.2% and the 23.6% Fibonacci of the 0.6425/0.6713 retracement leg. The median regression is acting as a support level as we now look for further clues if prices can remain above 0.66.

Should another divergence appear on the momentum indicator, then prices could be expected to attempt another test to the upper channel.

audchf

A short-term perspective hints to resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci. This is taken from the monthly high and low, creating the 0.6713/0.6591 retracement leg.

Should another attempt at the 0.6667 resistance area fail, then prices could be likel...


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Biden Threatens to Punish UK

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FOMC Gives Dollar Fresh Hope

The US Index finished indecisive on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve published their policy statement.

The key takeaways from the FOMC meeting saw the Fed committed to more asset purchases. In addition, it signaled no interest rate increases until at least the end of 2023.

Retail sales in the US climbed in August for a third straight month. However, at a slower pace than expected.

This news weighed in on the EURUSD pair, closing 0.27% down towards monthly lows.

However, the lack of any concrete steps towards fiscal stimulus lingers over the dollar.

We now look towards today’s jobless claims if the numbers can steer clear from the 1-million mark.

Sterling Pushes Towards 1.30

The pound finished 0.63% higher yesterday as bulls close in on the 1.30 handle.

The 3-day ascension was boosted by news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has agreed to amend the controversial Internal Markets Bill.

This comes as Joe Biden stated he will not allow peace in Northern Irelan...


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Oil Higher as US Crude Inventories Fall

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Crude oil prices have traded higher across the week, recouping some of the losses suffered over the prior week.

This week’s gains have been driven mainly by a bullish report from the EIA.

In the week ending September 11th, the Energy Information Administration reported a decline of 4.4 million barrels in the headline US crude inventories figure.

Gasoline Inventories Lower, Distillate Inventories Higher

This latest decline comes on the back of a near 10 million barrel increase over the prior week. The drop takes US crude inventories back down to 496 million barrels, which is around 14% higher than the five-year seasonal average.

The data showed that gasoline inventories were also lower by 0.4 million barrels over the week. This took gasoline inventories down to 3% above their 5-year seasonal average.

Distillate inventories, meanwhile, were actually higher, rising by 3.5 million barrels over the week. They are now back up at 22% above their 5-year average for this time of year.

Elsewhere...


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Gold Drops as 1967 Technical Resistance Proves Hard to Break

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xauusd

The precious metal is trading weaker, as the technical resistance level near 1967 held on.

The Fed meeting also set off the declines with gold likely to head lower in the near term.

Price action could be on track to retest the 1911.50 support area.

If the support holds once again, we could see the consolidation continuing.

However, if gold loses the 1911.50 support and the subsequent 1900 support, we expect a correction down to the 1817.80 region.

Test your strategy on how gold will fare with Orbex - Open your account now. 

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WTI Crude Oil Rises Past Previous Resistance

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wti crude oil

Oil prices continued to push higher as price action cleared the previous resistance level near 38.83.

Following the upside breakout, the commodity also pushed slightly higher to the levels near 40.00 before pulling back.

If the current pullback continues, then oil prices could be retesting the 38.83 level to establish support.

This could potentially set the stage for further continuation if the support holds.

The next upside target from 38.83 will be the 41.00 level. Previously, price action managed to hold on briefly.

Test your strategy on how Oil prices will fare - Open Your Orbex Account Now

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GBPUSD Pares Gains, BoE in Focus

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The British pound sterling failed to breakout above the 1.1300 handle. As a result, price action reversed gains and is pushing lower.

The BoE is scheduled to meet today and dovish rhetoric from the central bank could push prices even lower.

For now, the GBPUSD is trading within 1.3000 and 1.2750.

Given that the GBPUSD failed to test the lower support at 1.2750 previously, we expect a test of this level.

To the upside, it is unlikely that the GBPUSD will be able to breakout past the 1.3000 resistance level for the moment.

Test your strategy on how the GBP will fare! Open your Orbex Account and start trading now. 

The post GBPUSD Pares Gains, BoE in Focus appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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EURUSD Loses 1.1800 Handle

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The euro currency was trading on a weaker note as price fell following the Fed decision.

This led to the common currency losing the 1.1800 handle.

It comes after earlier in the week, the euro gained only for the gains to be capped near 1.1900.

At the time of writing, the EURUSD is testing the rising trend line. Price action is somewhat supported near the trend line.

With the Stochastics oscillator also oversold, we could see some modest bounce.

But if the trend line support is lost, then we expect a move down to the 1.1715 level of support.

Test your strategy on how the euro will fare with Orbex - Open your account now. 

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