Risk Assets Rally On US/China Trade Deal Optimism

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us china trade deal

Oil traders have been treated to an interesting start to the week as crude traded up to fresh 2019 highs. The driver behind the move is the increased sense of optimism around ongoing US/China trade talks.

Following a further round of negotiations in Beijing last week, officials from both sides are due to meet again this week in Washington. While little has been disclosed in terms of the details of last week’s talks, both sides have praised the progress being made and pledged to continue to strive towards a deal.

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Trump Praises Trade Talks Progress

Speaking at a White House conference last week, Trump said the US is now closer than ever to “having a real trade deal”. He added that, although talks were “very complicated,” he would be “honored” to remove tariffs on Chinese goods if a deal can be made.

Trump also reiterated recent comments regarding the potential to extend the current March 1st deadline while both ...


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January Swiss Balance of Trade

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Swiss Balance of Trade

Tomorrow sees the release of a data set that has a habit of moving CHF pairs: the Swiss monthly Balance of Trade.

The trade balance is important for any currency. But, in the case of the Swiss, it gets extra attention because the SNB is not shy about supporting exports by affecting the exchange rate.

In addition, trade accounts for over 40% of Switzerland’s economy.

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Schedule and Expectations

The trade balance data is scheduled for release 08:00 CET (or 02:00 EST). This is the only important Swiss data coming out during the session.

Regarding expectations, there somewhat of a broad range of forecasts. The most common number cited is a surplus of CHF3.1B, but some analysts are more pessimisticly projecting just CHF1.1B.

The Markets

In either case, a number above CHF1.0B is still positive, coming in just under the bottom of the year’s trend between CHF1.2-1....


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Video Analysis For The FX Majors 18.02.2019

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Here is our weekly video analysis for the FX Majors. We will be breaking down time-frames and highlighting what you should be looking out for this week!

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Intraday Technical Analysis 18 February

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technical analysis

The U.S. dollar was seen easing back after briefly rising to a two month high. Economic data on the day was dominated by news about President Trump declaring a national emergency to fund the building of the border wall with Mexico.

The markets seemed somewhat muted to the news report on the day, but the sentiment could be affected given that this could potentially lead to a legal standoff.

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Euro slips on Couere’s comments on TLTRO

On the economic front, the euro slipped after Benoit Couere, one of the contenders as the next ECB President said that the central bank could restart its long term targeted operations financing program. Investors viewed this information as a sign of mounting weakness in the Eurozone economy.

This was not the first time; however, as the December ECB minutes showed that officials deliberated on whether to introduce the TLTRO program once again.

The UK’s retail sales report scored better than expected to rise by 1.0% on the month and beat estimates of a 0....


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The ongoing China-USA trade talks, Japan’s CPI, the FOMC minutes and a raft of PMIs relating to Europe, are the key high impact calendar events to monitor this week

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USA equity markets finished with a flourish on Friday February 15th, the DJIA closed up 1.74% and the SPX up 1.09%. The implementation of a national emergency by Trump, to get funding for his Mexico border wall, was not enough to dent market confidence, as optimism developed in the New York trading session, that the USA-China trade/tariff talks would result in a positive outcome.

March 1st is set as the cut off day for an agreement to be reached, to prevent 25% import tariffs becoming applied to $200b of Chinese imports into the USA. This crude threat by the Trump administration, appears to be a blunt exercise by the USA govt, to begin reducing its massive trade deficit with China, in theory by circa $50b in 2019. However, in a globally interconnected economy, such simplistic calculations are unlikely to find a solution, if implemented.

Any failure to reach an agreement could result in the USA equity markets fluctuating and the U.S. dollar coming under increased scrutiny, during the tr...


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Weekly Market Outlook: Employment reports and Meeting minutes

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market outlook

The economic calendar for the week ahead marks the employment report coming out of Australia and UK’s. Central bank speeches this week will include talks from the Bank of Canada governor, Poloz and the ECB President Mario Draghi. The RBA’s Lowe will also be speaking this week.

From the Fed, Williams should hold a speech followed by some other members including Clarida, Bullard, and Quarles.

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Elsewhere, in the Eurozone, the monthly flash PMI manufacturing and services activity reports will be coming out. The data covers February, and the flash readings will be of interest amid a slowdown in the Eurozone’s economy.

The ECB, RBA and the Fed will be releasing their respective monetary policy meeting minutes this week as well.

Here’s a quick recap of what’s to come in the currency markets this week.

Jobs report – Australia and the UK

The employment report from Australia and the UK will be coming out this week. Both reports will gain a lot of attention.

For Australia, the w...


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Weekly Metals Wrap

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Gold

The yellow metal saw further consolidation this week, remaining within the range of the last two weeks as a lack of catalysts kept trading very muted. Despite a stronger US Dollar over the week, gold prices were able to remain supported, recovering initial losses to end the week higher. Ongoing uncertainty around Brexit negotiations, US / China trade talks and fresh concerns over a growth slow down in the US have seen safe haven inflow remaining steady, though favoring the Dollar for now.

TradingGold

Weaker than expected US data keeps Fed rate hike expectations subdued which should keep gold supported in the medium term. Traders now await details on the trade talks taking place in Beijing which should provide the next catalyst for risk flows. If progress is seen to have been made and headlines are positive, risk sentiment should rally, taking gold lower. However, if reports are negative and it looks as though a deal or further talks will not be agreed, we could see risk assets tumbling sharp...


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5 books world leaders recommend

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Besides politics and diplomacy, world leaders are also promoting their own preferences when it comes to reading. Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and Quora are the channels that world leaders prefer to communicate. From east to west and north to south, we sum up for you a bookshelf.

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1. Becoming, Michelle Obama – recommended by former US president Barack Obama

The former president of USA, Barack Obama, released on Instagram his cultural list for 2018, featuring 29 books. Of course, the first one on the list is Michelle Obama’s Becoming, with the note “obviously my favorite”. His list includes national bestseller Americanah by Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, and New York Times bestseller How Democracies Die by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt. Moreover, Obama is constantly presenting his reading to the public on social media channels.

In the summer, he wrote on Facebook: “This summer I’ve been absorbed by new nov...


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Investors sigh as trade talks drag on; Gold glitters

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A sense of disappointment was felt across financial markets today after high-level trade talks between the US and China ended with no immediate announcement from either side. Although US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the negotiations were ‘productive’, the amount of progress made remained unclear and this uncertainty was reflected across global equity markets.  Asian shares closed lower today thanks to pessimism about the US-China trade talks, weak Chinese economic data and renewed concerns over slowing US growth. While European markets are edging higher as bulls find... Read More


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US500 (S&P) – Corrective sequence before sellers return

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December US NFP

Weekly: Trading within an AB=CD corrective sequence. We expect the current positive move to stall near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the previous corrective leg lower.

Daily: Price action looks to be in the leg of a 5th wave. The 78.6% fib lines up with a confluence of previous highs and provides and an ideal area to fade the current up-leg.

We look to Sell at 2800

Stop: 2840

Targets: 2600 & 2520

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Global market sell off gathers steam as China-USA trade talks make little progress and Trump declares national emergency

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In an act of pique, due to not receiving funding for the infamous Mexico-USA wall, Trump declared a state of national emergency on Thursday night. The practicalities, if the national emergency comes into force, are straightforward. His govt, his de facto executive, can then take control of national spending, in order to divert funds to his wall project. Hopes are high that his Republican Party combined with the Democrats, will deny to support his naked power grab. As a consequence of the declaration attempt, after a fraught trading day on Wall Street, when China-USA trade and tariff talks made zero progress, Trump’s bizarre move hit market sentiment, with the major USA equity indices selling off in late trade.

The lack of sentiment continued through to the Sydney-Asian session; China’s CSI index closed down 1.86%, Japan’s NIKKEI closed down 1.13%. Despite rising by circa 4.43% in 2019, at 20,900 Japan’s index is close on 25% below the 52 week high, posted in early October 2018. The U.S...


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Datos de Comercio y Sentimiento del Consumidor en EE.UU.

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february us consumers

Podría haber volatilidad en el mercado de divisas al final de la sesión debido a la publicación de una serie de datos macroeconómicos de EE.UU. Estos son los últimos datos importantes para los mercados antes del fin de semana extendido (el lunes es feriado en EE.UU.) Con las negociaciones para poner término a la guerra arancelaria aún por finalizarse, no sería sorprendente que los traders quieran apartarse un poco de las posiciones de mayor riesgo al terminar la sesión hoy.

Datos de comercio

La recolección de datos para los índices de precios de importaciones y de exportaciones no fue afectada por el cierre del gobierno, debido a que el Departamento de Estadísticas Laborales tuvo suficiente financiamiento durante el período. Entonces estos datos son frescos, correspondientes al mes pasado.

Los precios de importación y exportación son un factor importante en determinar los términos de intercambio, que hemos discutido anteriormente; mayores precios de importación puede implicar a la inf...


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Orbex Market Flash

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us retail sales

Fresh Growth Fears as US Retail Sales See Biggest Drop Since 2009

Yesterday was not great for the Fed as the latest US data added to fears of a growth slowdown. December Retail Sales fell 1.2% over the month, wildly below both the prior and expected 0.1% readings. Notably, the decline over December was the most significant drop in retail sales since September 2009. Furthermore, non-store retailers noted a 3.9% contraction in sales over the month, the biggest decline since November 2008.

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US Retail Sales

While many might associate the decline to the government shutdown, it didn’t start until late December. Indeed, the data is consistent with the drop in consumer confidence ahead of the turn of the year as trade war concerns, and a sharp stock market rout both took their toll.

Core retail sales, excluding gasoline, automobiles and building materials, posted a 1.7% contraction over the month. This reflects the severity of the decli...


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February US Consumer Sentiment and Trade Data

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february us consumers

There could be some volatility in currency markets at the end of the trading session with the release of a series of second-tier economic data out of the US, the last significant bits of information for the markets ahead of the extended weekend (a reminder that Monday is a trading holiday in the US). With trade talks ongoing, it wouldn’t be surprising that investors were a little more keen to stay away from risk positions as trading winds down.

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Trade data

Import and export price data collection stayed unaffected by the US government shutdown since the Bureau of Labor Statistics was funded throughout. Therefore, this data release is in line with the schedule and counts as “new data.”

Import and export prices are an essential factor in determining the terms of trade, which we discussed at length previously; higher import prices can implicate inflation rates, lower import prices can implicate the c...


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Intraday Technical Analysis 15 February

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technical analysis

Trade balance figures from China showed a somewhat better picture compared to the expectations. Data for January showed that exports in dollar-denominated terms rose 9.1% during the month while imports fell 1.5%. This left the trade surplus at $39.1 billion for the month.

The data was better than the expectations which showed that both imports and exports would fall.

The European trading session showed that Germany’s GDP for the fourth quarter remained flat against expectations of a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s GDP kept unchanged at 0.2% for the same period.

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The U.S. trading session saw the delayed retail sales report coming out. Data for December showed that retail sales fell 1.2% on the month in December while core retail sales fell 1.8%. The data stoked concerns of the downside risks, and the USD paired gains as a result.

Earlier today, China’s inflation report released earlier today during the Asian trading session showed that headline inflation grew at a s...


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U.S. services activity declines in January

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activity services declined

The services sector in the United States expanded at a slower pace in January. The Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing PMI released last week showed that activity in the sector fell to 56.7 in January.

This scored slower compared to December’s reading of 58.0. January’s services activity was also the lowest since July 2018.

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Despite the slowdown, the services sector managed to expand. Economists polled forecast that the services sector activity would ease to 57.

us services activity
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI: 56.7 (January 2019)

The prices paid index increased to 59.4 from 58.0 in December while the employment index rose slightly from 56 in December to 57.8 in January.

The business activity and production index fell to 59.7 from 61.2 while the new orders index fell to 57.7 from 62.7 in the month before.

Anthony Nieves, the Chair of the ISM’s business survey committee said that firms were concerned about t...


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Retail sales crash in the USA, whilst tariff talks with China fail to make breakthrough, causing USA equity indices to give up gains, during the New York session

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The latest retail sales data for the USA economy missed the Reuters target by some distance when published. The forecast was for a drop to 0.1%, however, the actual print came in at -1.2% for December, month on month. Analysts and market commentators on channels such as Bloomberg, scrambled around for an explanation; stock market correction in December, Black Friday sales timing, USA v China trade/tariff war, even the government shutdown was blamed, despite it being an event which occurred during January. The most logical explanation is two fold; consumers are struggling with their income v debt ratios and they’ve lost confidence in their own, personal, economic security.

Evidence of their simple lack of ability to pay bills was delivered earlier in the week, with the revelation that over seven million auto loan customers, were three months or more behind with their car finance payments. At the height of the Great Recession in 2009, when the credit crunch was gripping global economies ...


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Best Cryptocurrency to Invest in 2019 – Our Top 4 Picks

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Do you want to know what the best cryptocurrency to invest 2019 are? Knowing which blockchain technology to invest in might prove to be a hard task. With hundreds of cryptocurrencies to invest in, where do you begin? Luckily for you, we have used several factors before picking the best cryptocurrency to invest in. We […]


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EM currencies wait on trade talks; Yuan weakens

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Emerging market currencies held steady near the end of the week as cautious optimism over the progress of US-China trade talks supported appetite for riskier assets. Higher-yielding currencies like the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso among many others held onto gains against a softer US Dollar. Although emerging market currencies have the potential to appreciate further on Dollar weakness, the medium to longer term outlook will be influenced by various fundamental market themes. With trade developments, concerns over plateauing global growth, Brexit uncertainty and other geopolitical risks... Read More


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What are indicators good for?

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Follow our weekly podcast and listen to our in-depth analysis on topics like trading or fundamental analysis.

In this podcast, we emphasize the functionality of indicators and the importance of backtesting and identifying patterns that can enhance your trading strategy.

At Orbex we believe in interesting ideas and we are bringing you fresh ones every week.

You can listen to the podcast on mobile or desktop and download it on your device.

The post What are indicators good for? appeared first on Orbex Forex Trading Blog.


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Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report

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crude oil

With OPEC currently battling to turn the tide of lower oil prices through a cut in production, the latest industry data from the US will not make happy reading.

The most recent weekly report from the Energy Information Administration, covering the week ending February 8th, showed US crude inventories rising by 3.6 million barrels. They ended the week at 450.8 million barrels. Inventories, which rose by more than the 2.7 million barrels forecasted by the market, are now at their highest levels in over a year.

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Interestingly, the large build in inventories came amidst a drop in crude imports which fell by 430k barrels per day over the week. They now sit at 3.8 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level since EIA records began in 2001.

Meanwhile, crude production was basically unchanged. It held at record highs of 11.9 million barrels, where it has been since the start of the year.

Refinery Runs At Lowest L...


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Orbex Market Flash

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uk cpi

The latest CPI data this week has once again highlighted a loss of momentum in the UK economy. The data comes after a weaker than expected Q4 2018 GDP print and a BOE 2019 growth outlook that was revised sharply lower. There was also the raft of weaker than expected PMI readings.

UK CPI fell to 1.8% in January, down from the prior month’s 2.1% reading. This was below the forecast 1.9% level the market was expecting. This latest reading sees UK CPI hitting its lowest level since January 2017, now down sharply from the November 2017 peak of 3.1%.

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Commenting on the decline, Mike Hardie who is head of inflation for the Office for National statistics said:

“The fall in inflation is due mainly to cheaper gas, electricity, and petrol, partly offset by rising ferry ticket prices and airfares falling more slowly than this time last year.”

The price cap introduced by Ofgem, which went active ...


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Why Should You Care About EURGBP?

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eurgbp

EURGBP or EUR/GBP is the notation for the currency pair composed of the euro and the British pound. It is one of the more popular crosses. The value represents how many pounds (the quote currency) are needed to buy one euro (the base currency).

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What Makes this Pair Different?

The pair tends to remain largely flat, with bursts of volatility during key trading hours. This general sideways trading is ideal for swing traders and scalpers. It’s rarely very active outside of the European trading window, but during those times it can accumulate wide swings, and there is an opportunity for traders to collect a lot of pips.

Another popular reason for trading the pair is to derisk from the dollar when trading either the pound, the euro, or both. Since those are the three most traded currencies in the world, the EURGBP is the most popular hedging cross.

General Characteristics

The pair represents th...


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¿Por qué te debería importar el EURGBP?

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eurgbp

EURGBP o EUR-GBP es el símbolo usado para denotar el par de monedas compuesto por el euro y la libra esterlina, y es uno de los cruces más populares. El valor representa cuántas libras (la moneda de cotización) se necesitan para comprar un euro (la moneda base).

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En qué se diferencia

Este par tiende a mantenerse relativamente estable, con períodos corto de volatilidad durante ciertas horas. Esta tendencia lateral es ideal para operadores swing y scalpers. Raramente muestra mucha actividad fuera de la sesión europea, pero durante ese tiempo puede acumular movimientos amplios dando la oportunidad para acumular muchos pips.

Otra razón que hace popular a este par es para reducir el riesgo del dólar al operar con la libra o el euro, o ambos. Como estos son las tres monedas más tranzadas en el mundo, el cruce EURGBP es uno de los cruces más comúnmente usado para hedging.

Característics generales

El par representa a las do...


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Market Insights – Key Levels – EUR, GOLD, TRY, MXN

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markets insights

Today’s episode covers some key levels and possible trend reversals. Elliott Wave analyst Richard Tataru takes you through his charts, sharing his wave counts and technical analysis on DollarIndex (DXY) EURUSD XAUUSD (GOLD) USDTRY USDMXN.

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The German economy avoids a technical recession, whilst China’s exports bounce back

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Germany’s latest GDP figure for Q4 came in at 0.00%, ahead of the -0.2% recorded for Q3. Two quarters (in series) of negative readings is regarded as a recession. Therefore, Germany’s economy could currently be described as stagnant, despite YoY growth coming in at 0.9%. The reasons for the recent contraction in the economy include: a global slowdown, slumping car sales, weather and Brexit. The threat, and partial implication of the Trump administration’s tariffs on European imports into America, also caused a blip in demand and supply. The emissions scandal over certain German car manufacturers likewise.

The latest Eurozone GDP growth figures were also published on Wednesday morning, the data met forecasts with GDP growth in Q4 maintained at 0.2%, with yearly growth of 1.2%. Employment change edged up by 0.3% in Q4. At 9:00am U.K. time EUR/USD traded close to flat, critically below the 1.130 handle. The euro had slipped versus the majority of its peers, versus the U.K. pound the euro ...


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Forex Majors After Inflation Data – Intraday Technical Analysis

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Forex pairs were directly affected by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, as some sharp moves were noticed on the charts.

These sudden moves have been in-line with the most recent views shared with Orbex traders via the daily Market Insights videos.

GBP and USD inflation data both show disappointing figures, and this could lead to possible reversals ahead.

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Larger degree patterns could be completing for most FX Majors, which could mean that the tables are turning for currencies.

In the lines below, a technical perspective is shared, along with wave counts and possible structures.

Wave Counts & Structures

Dollar Index (DXY) – 2H Chart

forex dxy

  • DXY labeled in a Zig-Zag corrective structure for Minor B (red), with Minor C (red) possibly commencing a bearish impulse.

EUR/USD – 2H Chart

forex eur/usd

  • EUR/USD labeled in a corrective structure for Minor B (green), with Minor C (green) possibly commencing a bullish ...


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Intraday Technical Analysis 14 February

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technical analysis

The U.S. dollar recovered from the losses from Wednesday led by slightly better inflation report and budget deficit narrowed to $13.5 billion year on year from $23.2 billion.

On the economic front, data from the UK showed inflation fell more than expected to 1.8%. Economists polled were expecting a decline to 1.9%. The core inflation rate increased steadily to 1.9%.

Act_TradeIdeas

In the Eurozone, industrial production decreased more than expected to 0.9%. Economists forecast a decline to 0.4% on the month.

Sweden’s Riksbank held its monetary policy meeting yesterday. The repo rate kept at -0.25% as expected. The central bank signaled that it would hike rates once more during the second half of the year which would bring the repo rate to zero percent.

In the United States, consumer prices stayed flat during January. The core inflation rate rose by 0.2% which was within expectations. However, yearly, headline inflation rose to 1.6%, which scored better than expected, while core inflation kept s...


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EURUSD – Moving lower in the wedge

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Monthly: Trading within a bearish channel formation. Trend line resistance is seen at 1.2355. Levels close to the 38.2% pullback level of 1.2522 (from 1.6038-1.0349) found sellers. The move lower is mixed and volatile common in corrective formations.

Weekly: The RSI (relative strength index) his trading close to 50 highlighting that the major currency pair is non-trend. There is no clear indication that the downward move has come to an end. The 61.8% Fibonacci level is seen at 1.1186

Daily: Broken out of the channel formation to the downside. A flag formation target would take the pair to 1.1165. The trend of lower lows, and the possible base of an Ending Wedge formation (bullish) is seen at 1.1225. Although the downside may be limited, risk/reward is ample to call a sell trade idea

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Investors on the sidelines awaiting trade negotiations outcome

This article was first published on ForexTime (FXTM).
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Investors in Asia are sitting on the sidelines as they cautiously await the outcome of high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China. With the earnings season almost coming to an end, asset prices will begin to fluctuate on daily news headlines. So far, it seems we have more positive than negative news which may continue to support equities. President Donald Trump is willing to extend the trade deal deadline if the two parties seem to be coming closer to a resolution. A good outcome from the expected meeting on Friday between China’s President Xi Jinping and his counterparts U.S.... Read More


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