Why do over 96% of Traders Lose?

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In this episode, we delve into trading psychology and why it is important to improve your trading skills.

Take notice as we go over some examples of how the emotions of fear and greed can affect your decision to buy or sell!

You can listen to the podcast on mobile or desktop and download it on your device.

Follow our bi-weekly podcast and listen to our in-depth analysis on topics such as forex trading tips and fundamental/technical analysis.

Content & Research Credit:
James Harte
Stavros Tousios

 

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Se viene el balance comercial de Nueva Zelanda

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new Zealand trade

Ya que hemos tenido el ajuste en la perspectiva del RBNZ debido a los datos económicos poco satisfactorios, ¿será reflejado en uno de los indicadores económicos más importantes para la divisa? ¿Tendremos un mejor resultado? ¿Qué podríamos esperar del balance comercial, y cómo se traduce en movimientos en la divisa?

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Expectativas y agenda

El balance para marzo será publicado el viernes a las 00:45 hora de Madrid (equivalente a las 17:45 del jueves hora de México), como también su versión anualizada. Los mercados probablemente se enfocarán de igual forma en los componentes como la cifra principal.

El consenso entre los economistas es que el balance comercial haya recaído al déficit en NZD271 millones, que revertiría el pequeñísimo superávit del mes anterior de NZD12M. Esto llevaría al déficit comercial anualizado a caer aún más en sus peores resultado en años, anotando -NZD6,6 mil millones, comparado con los -NZD6,2 m...


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The latest GDP growth rate for the USA could cause movement in the value of USD.

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At 13:30pm, on Friday April 26th, the latest GDP growth data, relating to the USA economy, will be published. The annualised quarter on quarter figure, for the first quarter of 2019, is forecast by agencies such as Bloomberg and Reuters, to come in at 2.2%, registering no change from the level recorded for Q4 2018.

However, the GDP rate had fallen from the previous 3.4% to 2.2%, a significant fall blamed on the ripple effect, caused by the collapse in USA equity markets in the final two quarters of 2018, and the temporary, but modern day record long, government shut down in February. On a year on year basis; quarter 4 2018 versus quarter 4 2017, the current GDP rate is recorded at 3%.

The predictions from various agencies of no change, after they’ve polled their panels of economists, are based on the various key metrics on the USA recording relatively benign results over recent months. Inflation is currently running at 1.8%, unemployment is at close to modern day record lo...


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New Zealand’s Trade Balance is Coming Up

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new Zealand trade

We’ve had an adjustment in the RBNZ’s outlook to reflect the less than satisfying data we have been seeing lately. But is one of the more important economic indicators for the currency going to reflect that?

Or are we going to have a better result? What can we expect from the trade balance, and how does it translate into currency moves?

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Expectations and Schedule

The trade balance for March is coming out on Friday at 00:45 CET (which would be Thursday at 18:45 EST). The annualized version will also be published. The markets are likely to scrutinize the individual components of the balance just as much as the headline.

The consensus among surveyed economists is that the trade balance slipped into deficit, by just NZD271M. This would have reversed last month’s minuscule surplus of NZD12M. And it would lead the annualized trade deficit to plunge further into multi-year lows, coming in at -NZD6...


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Yen rises versus the majority of peers, as BOJ keeps key interest rate at -0.1%, U.S. dollar maintains recent heights, as FX traders turn their focus to Friday’s GDP data.

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The Bank of Japan has kept the interest rate at -0.1%, yen rose shortly after the announcement and during the broadcast of the BOJ monetary policy statement and the publication of their outlook report. The BOJ recommitted to its current, ultra loose, monetary policy, however, its belief that it has targeted and is confident, that growth will continue until 2021, combined with their desire to reach a 2% CPI level, delivered market confidence that the BOJ may rein in the policy, earlier than previously expected.

Therefore, yen rose in early Asian trade and by 9:00am U.K. time, USD/JPY traded at 111.8, down -0.25%, as price stopped short of breaching S1. Versus EUR, AUD, GBP a similar pattern of price action behaviour was illustrated, with AUD/JPY developing the most bearish price action, falling by -0.35%, piercing S1. Partly based on the continued momentum versus the Aussie across the board, after CPI missed the forecast by some distance, during Wednesday’s economic calendar ne...


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Market Insights – What’s Happening With The Commodity Minors?

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market insights

In today’s market insights Stavros talks about commodity pairs CADJPY and AUDNZD. Watch how Canada’s dollar is expected to pan out after BoC and BoJ InterestRate decisions, and keep a close eye on Aussie and Kiwi as both reached multi-month lows!

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US Crude Bid Despite Weekly Oil Inventories Disappoint

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Crude oil prices reached an October 2018 high this week on Trump’s waiver decision. Both the API and EIA reports for the week ending April 19 were disappointing. However, it will take more than just a few stockpiled barrels for any significant drawdowns in prices to be seen.

API reported a huge build of 6.9 million barrels, as opposed to the 0.167 million barrel drawdown forecast.

US crude oil inventories increased by 5.479 million barrels compared to last week.  Analysts missed expectations of 0.4 million barrels by a huge margin and diverged further away from the upbeat -1.396 million barrels stocks report for the week ending April 12.

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Oil Recoils From $66.67 Downwards After API Report

The American Petroleum Institute released its weekly inventories report on Tuesday. It reported a massive build in oil stocks compared to last week’s draw of 3.096 million barrels and a draw of 1.82 million barrels...


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BoC Holds Rates Steady, Cuts GDP Forecasts

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Technical analysis

The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting yesterday saw the interest rates unchanged at 1.75%. However, the central bank cut the GDP forecasts for Canada from 1.7% to 1.2% for 2019.

The BoC was optimistic that growth would pick up in the second half of the year. The removal of the hawkish forward guidance also weighed on the CAD which fell over 0.5% on the day.

TradeCAD

German Business Sentiment Weighs on the Euro

The business sentiment report from Germany came out softer than expected to impact the euro currency. The common currency lost 0.55% on the day as it plunged below the 1.1200 handle. The Ifo institute’s business sentiment report saw the index falling to 99.2 in April from 99.7. Meanwhile, French business sentiment report also weakened.

Euro Slips to 1.115 – What’s next?

The common currency fell sharply on the day and cleared the support level of 1.1200 to test 1.1150. The intraday charts point to a potential recovery, but the gains could be limited in scope. The previous lows of 1...


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Risk appetite fades on growth fears; Dollar soars to 2019 high

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Asian shares were under pressure this morning as disappointing economic data from Germany and South Korea revived concerns over slowing global growth. Although earnings have been generally positive so far, the sustainability of any rally fuelled by strong earnings should be questioned, given how geopolitical risks and lingering growth concerns continue to strain risk sentiment. The cautious mood from Asia is likely to roll over into Europe, and possibly Wall Street this afternoon, as investors adopt a guarded approach to riskier assets. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan as widely expected kept... Read More


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Trade of the Day – EURUSD – Moving lower within the wedge formation

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EURUSD – Intraday – We look to Sell at 1.1195 (stop at 1.1225)

Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 178 days. Net daily losses of 74 pips. Yesterday’s Marabuzo is located at 1.1190. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.1195. Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation. The trend of lower lows is located at 1.1120. Intraday signals are far from strong.
Our profit targets will be 1.1117 and 1.1055

Resistance: 1.1195 / 1.1233 / 1.1294
Support: 1.1116 / 1.1055 / 1.1000

 

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Australasian dollars slump, U.S. dollar rises, U.S. equities slip from record highs.

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The Aussie dollar immediately slumped versus the U.S. dollar, during Wednesday’s Sydney-Asian trading session. The CPI reading (year on year) up to March came in at 1.3%, falling from 1.8%, dampening any expectation that the RBA central bank would be raising the interest rates, during  the short to medium term, in 2019. AUD/USD slumped during the early trading sessions and once New York opened, the slump (in all Aussie pairs) continued; by 22:00pm AUD/USD traded down -1.23%, having crashed through the three levels of support, to reach a three week low, maintaining position just above the 0.700 handle, at 0.701.

Similar patterns were observed by all currency pairs where AUD was the base. The kiwi dollar also slumped, due to its close correlation  with the Aussie and the countries’ close economic ties. NZD/USD traded down -0.99%, plunging to a 2019 low, having traded in a downward trend, for the majority of April.

USA equities failed to hold the record (or close to reco...


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Durable Goods Orders Forecast to Rebound in March

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good order forecast

The Department of Commerce will be releasing the preliminary durable goods orders report today. According to the economists polled, the durable goods orders are forecast to rise 0.7% on the headline. This would reverse the 1.6% decline seen in February.

Core durable goods orders are forecast to rise 0.2% on the month, reversing the 0.1% decline in February. Both the headline and the core durable goods orders are forecast to rebound following February’s decline.

Given that the durable goods orders report is for the month of March, this could potentially have an impact on the US GDP figures that are due on Friday.

Right now, the estimates are showing that the US economy might have increased by 2.2% in the first three months of the year. But a soft report from the durable goods orders could potentially dent that bullish expectation.

Durable Goods Orders Fell in February

In February, the data was mixed. Orders for non-defense capital goods which exclude aircraft orders fell 0.1%. This was ...


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What is volatility, how can you adjust your trading strategy to it and how can it impact on your trading results?

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It’s hardly surprising that the majority of retail FX traders, fail to acknowledge the impact volatility can have on their trading outcomes. The subject, as a phenomenon and the direct impact it can have on your bottom line, is hardly ever fully discussed in articles, or on trading forums. Only the occasional, fleeting reference, is ever made. Which is a considerable oversight, based on the fact that (as a subject), it is one of the most misunderstood and overlooked factors, involved in trading all markets, not just FX.

A definition of volatility could be “a statistical measure of the distribution of returns for any given security, or market index”. In general terms; the higher the volatility at any time, the riskier the security is considered to be. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation models, or the variance between the returns from the same security, or market index. Higher volatility is often associated with big swings, which can occur in either...


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Greenback Continues Rising Days Ahead of US GDP

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Nasdaq Hits Record High, Remains Bid Along with SPX and Dow

NAS100 recorded an all-time high yesterday at 7820 after several companies reported better than expected numbers for quarter one. eBay, Lockhead Martin, and iRobot, just to name a few, all surprised to the upside. All indices remain bid ahead of the NY open on the back of Twitter’s results as now, expectations are that all corporate mammoths report upbeat revenues.

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CPI Inflation Miss Takes Aussie to Fresh 6-week Lows

The Australian dollar suffered great losses into the London session. It remains relatively downbeat after quarterly inflation missed expectations. Against the greenback, Aussie dived from 71c down to a daily low of $0.7026. This comes as the CPI revives the RBA’s dovish stance, especially at 0.0% when 0.3% is expected. That also marks a 6-week low. Below the 71c. barrier, price action is bearish and from here traders eye the critical support at...


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XAU/USD 360° – Daily Chart

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xau/usd

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EUR/USD 360° – Daily Chart

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The fantastic show happens in 2 weeks!

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tradersfair_malaysia

Traders Fair & Gala Night, Malaysia – 2019

Intercontinental Kuala Lumpur is ready to welcome well-known Forex companies, brokers, investors, leaders of the industry and YOU – if you are ready to dive into the world of trading on April 27, 2019 with Traders Fair & Gala night, Malaysia.

Inside the large interactive exhibit hall every visitor will get the access to the newest trading instruments including the ones directly from experienced traders and financial companies.
Seminar Hall, Open Workshop Space and Workshop Hall will be working from 10:00 till 18:00 and will be full of educational seminars. You may meet trading gurus face-to-face, ask them questions and make professional contacts. Take a look at a glorious list of our speakers:

  • Khalid Hamid, TFS Price Action Trading
  • Nazri Naz, Trader, Author & Trainer, TradersMentor Training Studio, KL
  • Victor Chen, USGFX
  • Sifu Kaza, Economic Analyst at FBS Markets
  • Martin Lam, ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Paci...


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Diagonal Call Calendar Spread – Smart Trading

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The diagonal call calendar spread will allow you to make smarter trades if you want to take advantage of short-term weakness that in the end it will revert. In today’s trading guide we’re going to discuss how to setup and trade with the call calendar spread strategy. If this is your first time on our […]


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Anticipo a decisión del BOJ

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BOJ's Interest Rate

Durante la noche tenemos el evento económico más importante del mes para el yen, y no es la decisión sobre la tasa de interés, sino el informe de política monetaria y en particular la conferencia de prensa que los igue. Usualmente se ve bastante volatilidad en el yen durante este período, y con las altas expectativas esta vez, podríamos ver mayor movimiento en la divisa.

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Agenda y expectativas

Usualmente la decisión e informe del BOJ se publican inmediatamente luego de concluir la reunión, que no tiene una hora fija, así que es bueno mantenerse alerta al calendario económico en el transcurso del día para tener la hora exacta.

Hay un amplio consenso de que no habrá cambio en la tasa, y el enfoque está entonces sobre cómo el BOJ interpreta los últimos datos y hacia dónde ven que se va la economía y la moneda. La clave está en encontrar las diferencias entre este y el último informe para ver si hay un cambio de perspec...


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Previewing the BOJ’s Interest Rate Decision

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BOJ's Interest Rate

Overnight we have the most important economic event of the month for the yen!

It’s not the interest rate decision, but rather the monetary policy statement and particularly, the press conference that comes after it. Usually, we see quite a bit of volatility in the yen around the BOJ’s actions. And with the heightened expectations this time around, we could see stronger moves in the currency.

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Schedule and Expectations

Typically, the decision and policy statement from the BOJ is released immediately after the conclusion of the policy meeting. This doesn’t tend to have a fixed time. So, traders must be sure to keep an eye on the economic calendar when trading the yen later today to get the exact time.

There is a broad consensus that there won’t be any change in the BOJ’s interest rate. Therefore, the focus is going to be entirely on how the bank is interpreting the latest data as...


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Dollar bulls back in driving seat…but for how long?

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The Dollar Index (DXY) found comfort near a yearly high above 97.70 today, after a raft of strong US earnings in the previous session boosted confidence over the health of the US economy. With improving US economic data easing fears revolving around a possible slowdown in growth momentum, appetite for the Greenback has improved drastically in recent weeks. While the DXY is likely to push higher in the near term, the medium to longer term outlook remains in favour of bears. For as long as the Federal Reserve maintains a “patient” and “flexible” approach towards interest rates, Dollar bears... Read More


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Aussie dollar crashes versus its peers, as inflation falls significantly, German IFO metrics miss the forecasts, adding to fears that Germany could be entering recession.

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The Aussie dollar slumped during the Sydney-Asian trading session, analysts quickly attributed the fall based on inflation coming in below expectations at 1.3% year on year in March, falling from 1.8%, as Q1 CPI came in at 0.00%. The falling CPI metric is an indication of weak growth, therefore, the RBA, Australia’s central bank, are less likely to increase the key interest rate. At 9:30am U.K. time, AUD/USD traded at 0.704, down -0.82%, crashing through the three levels of support, to S3, whilst hitting a two month low. Other AUD pairs followed similar patterns of behaviour.

European calendar releases in the morning session, concerned the latest IFO readings for Germany, with all three metrics missing the Reuters forecasts. Ranking as medium impact calendar events, the IFO readings will have added to increasing fears that the German economy could be stagnating, or perhaps heading for a technical recession, in various sectors. At 9:45am U.K. time, EUR/USD traded at 1.121, down...


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The Countdown To The Putin-Kim Meeting Begins

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Putin

Trump’s Failure Gives Putin Opportunity to Negotiate

North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Vladivostok just hours ago. He will be meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin tomorrow, Thursday, for a symbolic first encounter. Moscow has long pursued a central role over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions as the two neighboring countries are separated by borders. Expectations are for Kim to request economic assistance. Putin’s focus, on the other hand, will most likely be on portraying a powerful and sensible image since Trump failed to do so.

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Kim Open to Denuclearisation Talks After Hanoi

Following the Trump-Kim breakdown in Hanoi back in February, Trump gave way to other leaders to step up discussions over denuclearisation. South Korean president Jae-In is now looking to restart stalled talks as the risk of reviving tensions keeps rising. The North Korean leader said that he will wait “till t...


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