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All analysts’ estimates suggest that third-quarter GDP in the US is going to break all previous records for growth.
This is to be expected after the second quarter was the biggest drop on record.
The important question is whether the two moves cancel each other out, or leave the US on a positive or negative note.
That will have implications both for growth projections this year and for policy, which is the key to understanding the market reaction.
Thursday is the first look, or “advance” figure, which is likely to be subject to some revision later. But, given the magnitude of the GDP swing, later revisions are likely to be too small in comparison to have a major impact.
Consequently, there is a lot riding on this data for the markets.
What We Are Looking For
The range of forecasts is pretty broad, from as little as 28% to as high as 39.7%. But the average view (and where most of the forecasts cluster) is 31% annualized growth.
This is in comparison to -31.4% (final) i...
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