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With the ECB sounding more hawkish midway through last year, expectations of an eventual shift in policy by the SNB were building.

However, despite announcing an end to QE as was long signaled, the ECB has made it clear that intends to be far more patient when it comes to tightening interest rates.

Draghi has now frequently referred to the growing downside risks facing the eurozone. With the ECB president highlighting the need to monitor incoming data as well as the development of key global issues, the market has begun moving out its pricing for the first ECB rate hike of the cycle from post-summer 2019 (as the ECB had originally projected) to 2020.

With this in mind, the SNB is unlikely to lift rates over 2019, wanting instead to wait until the ECB has done so first. Following an upward revision to the SNB’s interest rate forecasts in the early part of 2018, it seemed that the SNB was readying itself for a shift in policy. However, the explosion in the intensity of the trade conflic...


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