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Tuesday registered a surprise beat in electronic card retail sales data. Now, the next bit of market-moving data is tomorrow’s (or later tonight, depending on where you are) BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index.

This is like the Kiwi version of PMI and it can change the direction of the currency.

So far this week, the NZD has been trending stronger thanks to a series of good data. The resumption of trade talks is also a contributing factor.

Some analysts are pointing to the trend continuing at least until next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Expectations for the Fed to cut rates are keeping the kiwi bid against its American counterpart.

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What We Are Looking For

The consensus among analysts is for the PMI data to return to just barely expansion at 50.2. This would be up substantially from 48.2 in the prior month.

July was the first time that this series dropped into contraction since mid-2013. So, a return to...

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