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Unemployment figures are likely going to be the key to assessing the longer-term impact of the coronavirus lockdowns.
While companies can restart operations fairly quickly on a technical basis, the loss of qualified personnel means that it will take longer to return to productivity.
Job losses also imply a drop in consumer demand in the future, as unemployment benefits run out.
Even before the pandemic, employment figures were a key measure for the AUD. The RBA routinely used to guide policy.
Now that the reserve bank has committed to a fixed rate in the near term, all attention is on how deep the economic impact from the pandemic is going to be.
The Different Outlooks
Some analysts are pointing to the massive job losses in the US as a potential pattern for Australia. They are predicting well over a million job losses.
However, it’s worth noting that in the US, employees have to file for unemployment...
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