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Some analysts, like the chief of currency strategy at Morgan Stanley, are saying that the dollar rally – which started in early 2018 – has come to an end.

At first glance, it isn’t a terribly controversial idea, given the recent understanding that the Fed will moderate its interest raising pace. But there are deeper factors that support this view (as well as some that contradict it), which bear further scrutiny.

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Where We Came From

Last year, the US dollar gained the most in the lead-up to the US-China trade war, as investors sought a safe-haven from market uncertainty. The index gained further starting in mid-October as the stock markets hit their correction, causing capital outflows from financial markets. The index finally turned around in mid-December, right after the Fed meeting.

The points that pushed the dollar higher could give us some insight into what might cause the dollar to go down if t...

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