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Forecasters were caught off guard (the polite way of saying their prediction was way off) by the sudden increase in job creation in May.

Now, they have switched to being optimistic about the release on Thursday. They are now projecting millions of new jobs being added for this month. But, is that an overcorrection?

As pointed out last time, there was a high chance of a significant beat of expectations, because, during May, businesses were reopening.

That means they were calling back furloughed workers who were being counted as unemployed for purposes of the NFP because it was a requirement to get unemployment benefits.

The Money Isn’t Available

Some states, such as Georgia, put an end to those benefits by June. This means that there was an increased motivation for people who were technically on unemployment to return to formal work.

While more openings happened in June, the pace has slowed, especially near the end of the month as new cases started to tick up again. The implicatio...


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