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The week is set to close off with major events on the economic calendar, giving us some potential for volatility in USD-denominated pairs. At 8:30 EST (or 14:30 CET) we have the release of US inflation data, which everyone is interested in because that’s part of the Fed’s mandate.

Given the softer tone from the Fed about rates going forward, analysts will be keeping an eye on inflation, and whether it increases enough to motivate a change in outlook.

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The Situation

There are several items of inflation data that come out at once, and they each give different information for the markets. As a reminder, the general rule is that as inflation goes up, the currency gets weaker and if inflation goes down, the currency gets stronger.

However, lately, that has functioned in reverse as higher inflation is seen as increasing the potential the Fed will raise rates and strengthen the currency. The Fed cares about the ...

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