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With all the focus on the elections, the upcoming FOMC meeting has slipped under the radar. After that, it’s the first Friday of the month, which means it’s NFP day.

Even as the market digests the results of the election – and particularly the implications for stimulus from the House races – there is plenty of data to move the market.

The thought hanging over the FOMC is likely to be what the fallout from the election means for the still-pending stimulus bill. As COVID cases rise across the US with people moving indoors because of colder autumn and winter temperatures, more economic impact is on the horizon. What will the Fed do?

What We are Looking For

The current consensus among economists is that the Fed won’t change the reference interest rate – yet. The macro data up until October was encouraging. it showed a healthy economic rebound.

Even with new covid cases, the Fed isn’t appreciably under pressure to push the panic button on supporting...

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