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The dramatic decline in the Turkish Lira has been the headline move in currency markets this year with TRY having fallen by over 30% against the US Dollar as inflation spiraled out of control, last peaking at nearly 25%, as geopolitical tensions began boiling over.
6.25% Interest Rate Rise
However, following aggressive action by the CBRT last month which hiked the main interest rate by a massive 6.25%, TRY has recovered some of its losses against the Dollar, stabilizing investor sentiment somewhat after a long, tumultuous summer of volatility.
Further Rate Hike This Month?
The CBRT is due to meet again this week, with the market wondering whether we are going to see further policy action to consolidate the gains made. However, given the massive policy adjustment in September, as well as the release of US Pastor Brunsen, which has caused a huge de-scaling of geopolitical risk, it seems more reasonable to expect the CBRT to keep its powder dry for now, especially while the effects of t...
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